Summary | This article analyzes the various views at home and abroad about the "middle-income trap", summarized the current academic different views on the "middle-income trap" that there are two different perspectives: first view is that , "middle-income trap" is an inevitable stage in the process of economic development of various countries, the performance of the general laws, the second view is that the "middle-income trap" is just an isolated national case, not every country the only way. This paper argues that the outstanding performance of the "middle-income trap" for the original supporting the economic development of favorable factors is exhausted, so that the economy is stagnant, "middle-income trap" is not just a mere economic issue, but also showed a social phenomenon across the "middle-income trap" need to break the existing system of curing, looking for a new economic growth point, change the mode of economic development, promote the comprehensive economic and social development.
Keywords | characteristics with the controversial thesis of the "middle-income trap" to write
The so-called "middle-income trap" (middle incometrap) refers to when a country's per capita income reaches a moderate level, due to the transformation of the mode of economic development can not be successfully achieved, resulting in a weak economic growth, culminating in a state of economic stagnation .2010 China's per capita GDP reached 4400 U.S. dollars, in accordance with the standards of the World Bank, China has entered the ranks of middle-income bias on the country ". >> << industrial competitiveness Blue Book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, December 13, 2011 said , in accordance with the standards of the World Bank, China has become the "upper-middle-income countries," Just as some developing countries, China faces slower economic growth, per capita income is difficult to improve the so-called "middle-income trap" test, for example, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Malaysia and other countries have moved into the ranks of middle-income countries "in the 1970s, but it was not until 2007, these countries are still hovering in the $ GDP3000 ~ 5000 per capita development stage. "Middle-income trap" appears instead of "Latin American", became the latest interpretation of the path of development in Latin America, still did not see the engine of economic growth in these countries so far and hope some Southeast Asian countries are also facing some of the common problems of economic development. This part of the research institutions and scholars believe, has a certain universality of the plight of Latin American development.
2010, as China's per capita GDP more than the arrival of 4000 dollars this stage of economic development, as well as the concerns of the people of the future sustainable growth of China's economy, China's "middle-income trap" as well as the Chinese economy can span "middle-income trap" issues for Chinese scholars worry about and discuss issues of the "middle-income trap" is likely to fall into or across this topic to become a focus of attention of domestic and foreign research institutions and academia, this paper regarding this issue academic point of view to do a literature review.
First, the "middle-income trap" concepts and definitions
At the international level, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and other multinational institutions were the first of the "middle-income trap". The World Bank was first proposed in 2006, the "East Asian Economic Development Report >> and explains the concept of the" middle-income trap ". Introduction of the" middle-income trap "Analysis of Development Economics, referring to country economic, political, social, strategy, policy, and a variety of factors such as their level of development in a balanced state of long-term stagnation hovering in the middle-income stage. Milan Brahmbhatt, senior economist in the World Bank East Asia and Pacific "The concept of 'middle-income trap' refers to the countries of the strategy from the growth of low-income countries to middle-income countries, they climbed to the high income is not enough. Historically, no country can actually harness had appeared almost complex technical, social and political challenges. "
Since then, the World Bank in 2007, entitled << East Asian renaissance: Research report on economic growth point of view >> also proposed, "due to the lack of economies of scale and middle-income countries in East Asia had to work hard to maintain its high growth rate based on the accumulation of factors of production strategy may lead to the continued deterioration of the results, due to the decline in the marginal productivity of capital in decades, they are yet to get rid of the 'middle-income trap', the Latin American countries and the Middle East is the best example. . "
2010, published by the World Bank entitled << strong recovery, increased risk >> study the concept of the "middle-income trap" further elaborated to the global financial crisis in East Asia, middle-income countries must shift over-intensive intermediate industrial development to accelerate structural adjustment, and high-income countries, but this will not be easy. decades, Latin America and the Middle East, some economies have been caught in the 'middle-income trap', in the face of rising wage costs, they seek through large scale and low cost to maintain their competitiveness, expanding knowledge and innovation-based product and service markets, they are so far not ascend the value chain ".
Ohno Kenichi (Kenichi Ohno) from the angle of upgrading the industrial structure, given the concept of the middle-income trap, you can clearly see from Figure 1, the upgrading of the industrial structure, Kenichi Ohno think, is not so perfect all the country's industrial upgrading will stagnation in many countries due to too small to accept the FDI in the stage 0:00 At this stage, some countries, such as Vietnam, even in the entry phase, it is difficult to enter the stage, while some countries, such as Thailand and Malaysia can not raise its human capital, and will not be able to break through the invisible glass ceiling ", which hovered in the transitional stage 2 to stage 3 Latin American countries in the 20th century to achieve a higher income, but still hovering in the middle-income level, which The phenomenon is known as the "middle-income trap." Kenichi Ohno, "middle-income trap" is just a question of economic growth, given the definition and understanding, and only from the point of view of industrial upgrading.
In China, with the deepening of awareness of this issue, scholars from different angles of the "middle-income trap" explains the point of view from the stage of economic development theory, Professor Zheng Bingwen: the 'middle-income trap' refers to some developing countries out of the 'low-level equilibrium trap', although the level of economic development than the per capita GDP 1000 U.S. dollars to enter the ranks of middle-income, but few countries can smoothly enter the ranks of high-income countries, long-term hovering in the middle-income range, They are either caught in the cycle of growth and fall, or longer-term in a very slow growth or even stagnation state some countries and regions to stay here for a long time in the next stage in the middle-income, middle-income stage, some countries and regions faster out of the next middle-income stage, but floundered in the upper middle-income stage. "roughly the same view of this understanding with the World Bank and scholars.
Zhang Ping and Wang Hongmiao think, "middle-income trap" is refers to, a developing economies from the "take-off" to enter the middle-income stage especially high or moderate partial income range future, will face than before more complex political, economic and social challenges If these countries can not properly respond to, it is possible in the middle-income stage long wandering, unable to extricate himself like a man falling into the "trap", unable to achieve the transition to the high-income countries. they think, from such income towards high-income not only economic problems, it is the development of political, economic, and social aspects of coordination.
Angle from the change of the economic growth mechanism and the transformation of economic development mode, Wang Yiming said: "The middle-income trap refers to the process forward by an economy from income to high-income, both can not be repeated and difficult to get rid of the middle-income by the low-income development mode, it is prone to stagnation of economic growth and wandering exceeded $ 10,000 per capita national income is difficult. "
From the perspective of social phenomena, Zeng Zheng said: "The 'middle-income trap' means when a country's per capita income reaches a moderate level, because it is difficult to achieve an effective transformation of the mode of economic development, the widening income gap, the slow accumulation of human capital, The urbanization process is blocked, industrial upgrading difficult, and a fragile financial system, such as a series of questions, lead to sustained growth, lack of motivation and social conflicts are frequent, so there wandering a state of economic stagnation. "
From the point of view of economic development strategy, Ma Yan: "'middle-income trap' instigation of national economies rely on a strategy of growth for middle-income economies from low-income economies to climb to the high-income economies, for they can not be reused , further economic growth is the growth mechanism of the original lock, the per capita national income is difficult to break through the ceiling of $ 10,000, one country can easily enter a phase of stagnation of economic growth hovering period. "Zhou learn its << economic cycle the theory >> a book, using the concept.
Second, with regard to the characteristics of the "middle-income trap" and controversy
Caught in the middle-income trap "national characteristics, the views of scholars magazine in seek 50 domestic renowned expert opinion based on national lists into a" middle-income trap "a matter of opinion << People's Forum in July .2010 >> ten basic characteristics: economic growth fell or stagnated, the democratic chaos, the divide between rich and poor, corruption-prone, over-urbanization, shortage of social and public services, employment difficulties, social unrest, beliefs, lack of financial system fragility of the China Development Research Foundation Tang Min, deputy Secretary-General will "middle-income trap characteristics summarized as five aspects: the income gap is too large, the expense of the urbanization massive slum, the financial system is fragile (easy to experience the impact of the financial crisis in the process of capital account liberalization) , slow industrial upgrading, social services lag. Gao Wei, the "middle-income trap" national characteristics summarized as follows: the income gap is too large; slow the accumulation of human capital, growth mode transformation unsuccessful, a fragile financial system, labor difficulties in transferring, the democratic process is slow and corruption. visible scholars view the characteristics of the "middle-income trap" is not consistent even in the presence of differences, mainly in the following areas.
(1) the "middle-income trap" general laws or a country case? Since 2007, the world's research institutions and academia on the discussion of the "middle-income trap" is becoming increasingly fierce, viewpoints scene. Academia there are two different views of the "middle-income trap".
The first view is that the "middle-income trap" is a general law in the national development process, and the stage is the stage of economic development of various countries insurmountable. Example, Hu Angang proposed the development of a country generally go through three stages: The first stage is from low-income to middle-or middle-income stage of economic take-off stage to the next, this phase factor driving economic development mode, and the second stage is from the lower-middle income to upper middle-income stage, this stage is important economic and social transition, the third stage of the transition phase to a high-income developed economies, while the second stage of social transition, there are three possibilities: If the transition is successful it will maintain the steady growth of the economy to successfully enter the third stage, if transformation is not successful, then the economy will stagnate, the failures of transition may interrupt the economic take-off to fall into the "middle income trap" Hu Angang also pointed out: not a novel economic and social phenomenon of the 'middle-income trap' .19 turn of the 20th century the beginning of that period, the U.S. economy took off was called 'Progressive Era', also known as the 'worst of times', the economic crisis, there have been periodic outbreaks of social polarization between the haves and have-nots, widespread political corruption, class conflict frequent phenomenon in other developed countries have a similar process in the process of modernization. "GONG summer:" The system of internal factors in the United States seems to be the most important reason of this country did not fall into the middle-income trap. "and the other developed countries in before entering the high-income countries, there are similar problems.
The second view is that the "middle-income trap" is only the case, is not the only way of economic development of each country. Gao Wei, "not all of the middle-income countries will fall into the 'trap', 'middle-income trap' just one example, rather than the General Theory, not a curse. Kangning that the" middle-income trap "reveals some of the countries in the a stage of economic development of a slowdown or even economic stagnation phenomenon, objectivity, and a better warning, but not all phenomena can represent the essence of things, only "middle-income trap" can a phenomenon, not a rule, did not constitute the universality of the principles of economics. About whether China would fall into the "middle-income trap", Chan Kong Sang, as long as China unswervingly adhere to the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, do not slack off, do not toss the development of China's economy will not fall into the "middle income trap" Goldman Sachs bank Jim O'Neill, president of the Asset Management, said China will not fall into the "middle income trap" He believes that China's policies are very "thoughtful", like Thailand and other emerging economies, they got into this predicament, because those countries There is no strong leadership has like China.
From the perspective of the development of the world economy, the countries of Latin America and the Middle East in the late 1960s and early 1970s has reached middle-income levels. Argentina, for example, in 1964 the per capita GDP of more than 1000 U.S. dollars, rising in the late 1990s to more than 8000 U.S. dollars, but in 2002 fell to more than 2000 U.S. dollars, rose again to $ 8,236 in 2008. many countries in Latin America, despite the efforts of two or three decades, has not been able to cross the $ 10,000 threshold is still hovering in the middle-income stage, the world's research institutions and scholars that fall into the "middle-income trap" typical some Southeast Asian countries into the middle-income economic development is blocked, it is difficult to enter the ranks of high-income countries. internationally recognized really get out of the "middle-income trap" into the ranks of high-income countries, only Japan and the Asian "tigers" such as a small number of countries or regions., from the world, not all developing countries are caught in the middle-income trap . "
But for sure is that when a country into a middle-income stage, a variety of social, economic and political contradictions outbreak, this is a relatively common phenomenon, I believe that the "middle-income trap" is the economic development of developing countries or in some areas a necessary stage, but because of the international environment, the specific conditions of different countries, different development policies taken out of the way of the "middle-income trap" way and has a different time, therefore, the transformation of economic growth mode. to achieve the sustainable development of the economy out of the economy hovering stagnation "trap" a necessary precondition.
(2) theory on the "middle-income trap" commentary. Developing countries, how to get rid of the "poverty trap" theory and literature in the development of the theory, the many recently proposed how a country from which the income phase towards high-income phase of the research literature is not a lot, mature theoretical system pending the advent of "middle-income trap".
First, from the perspective of classical development economics, domestic and foreign scholars mainly for the middle-income trap "is the stage of economic development theory to explain and illustrate the American economist W. W. Rostow book pointed out that the economic development of countries of the world is divided into six different stages, namely the traditional social stage, create a premise for "take-off" stage, "take-off" stage in the] Economic growth stage: Non-Communist Manifesto >> to "mature" advance stage, he believes people of high consumption stage, and the pursuit of quality of life stage. "take-off" stage to the "mature" advance stage process about 60 years. From the theory of development economics, developing countries from middle income across the stage to high-income stage time is long. The domestic scholars Gao Wei summarized based on historical statistics, proposed a four-stage theory, that is to attract foreign investment, industrial aggregation technology absorption and the creation of four stages from the second stage to the third stage of the transition is not successful, and he will be caught in the middle-income trap.Links to free papers Download Center http://eng.hi138.com
Secondly, currently in development economics research, the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "China's economic growth and macro stability," the research group of developed countries, developed countries and emerging market economies in the history of research, from the microscopic point of national changes in output growth in the economic development of the law, and for different stages with different theories to explain Malthus balanced industrial revolution, theory, classic Kaldor facts under the theory of economic growth and the new economy, bifurcation four stages, proposed in The latter part of the industrial revolution there will be a "middle-income trap" problems, human capital is the source of power to achieve sustainable development in the late
Finally, from the perspective of economic growth, the World Bank << East Asian renaissance: >> reports about the point of view of the economic growth in the middle-income countries in East Asia will experience three changes: First, the diversification of products will be slow and a reversal enable workers to be able to design their own new products and because of production and employment in these countries will become more and more specialized, the second decline in the importance of investing in innovation to accelerate Third, the education system will increase workers' skills to adapt to the new technology, the steering new processes. above changes and other income from these countries to continue to move forward, successful strategic change performance.
(3) With regard to the evaluation criteria of the "middle-income trap" the level of development of a country or region, the annual report of the World Bank << World Development Report >> GNP per capita of various countries and regions of the world is divided into three types: high-income countries (regions), low-income middle-income countries (regions), and low-income countries (regions). annual per capita gross national income of less than $ 995 and middle-income 996 to $ 12,195, the high-income to $ 12,196 and above which, in the middle-income standard, and is divided into the partial lower middle-income "and" partial upper-middle-income "lower-middle-income standard 996 to $ 3,945, upper middle-income standard is 3946 to 12195 dollars.
Some scholars believe that can not simply be judged in accordance with this standard can not just look at one or two indicators, but should see its Composite Index, including indicators of population development, economic and social development indicators, indicators of quality of life, education level indicators innovation ability index, the degree of information indicators and the degree of ecological indicators. mere "middle-income" development of the data is insufficient to comprehensive evaluation of a country or region.
Kangning epitaxial definition of the concept of "middle-income trap" vague, people find it hard to understand a country in what stage of economic development is easy to fall into the so-called "trap" the reference to "middle-income trap" from the world Bank, middle-income countries and high-income countries and low-income countries by the World Bank of the overly broad standard range of middle-income countries, minimum standards with the highest standards of a difference of more than ten times, if the boundaries of the "trap" is not clear, its meaning has lost its meaning.
South Africa's trade and industrial policy strategy, researcher Pulay think a country into the "middle income trap", depends on people's incomes and energy consumption is not synchronized to the development of these years in South Africa, to improve energy consumption but people's incomes have not been a corresponding increase. sustainable development depends on human development, employment growth and green development.
Third, the question of whether China would fall into the "middle-income trap"
Now fears that China has entered the middle-income countries, will not fall into the so-called "middle-income trap"? China as a world power, the ability to continue to maintain strong economic growth, to overcome the economic advance various development issues, the smooth realization from middle income to high income across the stage? affect a number of countries for the study of this problem, the expected trend of world economic development, as well as to avoid falling into the "middle income trap" provide a reference.
1 views on whether China would fall into the "middle-income trap"
About whether China would fall into the "middle-income trap", the world's research institutions and domestic academic and did not reach the same conclusion, Premier Wen Jiabao proposed long ago China's development prospects are two possibilities: One possibility is that the smooth realization of industrialization modern, into the ranks of developed countries, another possibility is to fall into the "middle-income trap", long-term economic and social development stagnating, or even social unrest and regressive. scholars study the various claims have now summarized as follows.
Some scholars believe that China although there are some problems in the process of development, but in accordance with the current state of development, were less likely or almost fall into the "middle-income trap" there is no World Bank East Asia chief economist Homi Kara Sri Lanka, the Chinese government is very visionary, China's positive performance from the export-led economic growth strategy for the development of the domestic market, so as to avoid the "middle-income trap" will have a good prospect. Professor Lin Yifu, "middle-income trap "is not inevitable, it depends to a large extent on the policies and development mode for China's reform and opening up 30 years, the Chinese government has accumulated a wealth of experience in the area of macroeconomic management. addition some scholars put forward, China will likely fall into middle-income trap. "Mark believes that China has just entered the ranks of middle-income countries, the view from the breadth and depth of industrialization, urbanization and market economy development, economic growth potential, the deputy secretary general of the China Society of Economic Reform , from the short term should not appear long hovered even stagnation but at the same time he believes that China's economy and have been expanding, but the problem of structural imbalances and distortions long-term is not resolved, sustainable growth challenges. sense the danger to fall into the "middle-income trap", China should maintain a high degree of vigilance.
Blue celebrate new China within the next five years, there is still the risk of fall into the "middle-income trap" He believes that, due to our country in the process of economic growth, the risk of inflation, which caused a certain degree of price increases, the government taken to curb price measures may cause some recession in the economy means that China's economic policies will be carried out in a "dilemma". Meanwhile, Wang Yiming, six challenges exist in China fall into the "middle-income trap": First, the labor cost trends rise high savings rate adjustment, third is the "bottleneck" of the technological innovation, industrial scale expansion can not be sustained, five hard constraints reinforced Resources and Environment, Sixth widening income gap, seven increased significantly social conflicts.
Some scholars believe that, in accordance with the current process of development, China will be able to enter the ranks of high-income countries, but there will be a period of adjustment. Example Hanan If China in the future can be a long period remained roughly an average annual rate of 7% to 8% growth, that is about 2024 to the late 14th Five-Year Plan, China will be able to enter the ranks of high-income countries, but at this stage in 2015, China may be a period of adjustment. author believes that this analysis is simply from the perspective of economic growth in China will not fall into the "middle-income trap", and not to be considered from the point of view of economic development, there is a certain one-sidedness.
2. Differences of opinion on how to cross the "middle-income trap"
Although scholars whether China will fall into the "middle-income trap" lack of consistent findings, but the view of the domestic and foreign scholars and international organizations, China faces the risk of "middle-income trap" is consistent with the focus of their research is to explore how defuse the risk of the "middle-income trap", because it is not only the problems faced by a country of China, but also the problems faced by many other countries. problems in China, a good reference for other countries.
The success of many domestic and foreign scholars from a comparative perspective, fall into the "middle-income trap" lessons for Latin America and some Southeast Asian countries and Japan and South Korea and other economies into the experience of the high-income countries are summarized leap of "middle-income trap" the issue is currently subject to more domestic scholars are concerned about income distribution gap is too big. Professor Cai Fang solve the income gap is too large, the basic form the pattern of income distribution is the key to the country across the middle-income trap.
Foreign scholars through research on the economy of some countries in Southeast Asia, and how to cross the "middle-income trap" some of the views. Kenichi Ohno studies, Vietnam's economic growth in the past few decades mainly by the liberalization of the economy and a large number of external purchasing power drive, but with the adjustment of the global economy and the deepening of the integration, Vietnam needs to create more internal value continues to grow, in order to avoid the "middle-income trap" Vietnam's economic growth is unlikely to reach a higher level of income unless the development of new policies to activate the country's production capacity. become the Vietnamese industrial policy to develop the key entry point for a new kind of leadership ability, direct services to high-level technical team and strategic alliances with international partners.
Wing Thye Woo (Wing Thye Woo) through the study of the Malaysian economy, the knowledge-based economic growth to restart that microeconomic price, the right to an effective framework of institutions and macroeconomic balance. Microscopic prices means the government substantially reduced interference pricing mechanism withdrawal of the government has a monopoly of the Company and its subsidiaries with the families of politicians. Federal and state procurement system should be open tender system. pricing mechanism should be an economic means, the allocation of resources is not a political tool of the lease. effective the framework of institutions that reform key economic, social and political system of modern governance framework. Specifically, a large-scale reform must explore appropriate policy Former Indonesian President Suharto, such as the decentralization of economic decision-making power and the establishment of The anti-corruption bodies. macroeconomic balance right macroeconomic management the following principles: fiscal balance, and balance the budget priority investments in external balance.
Some domestic scholars through comparative study of some Latin American countries and Japan and South Korea, summed across some of the conclusions of the "middle-income trap" Wang Yiming, select the stability of economic growth, technological innovation, human resources, distribution of income, social development and external dependence six aspects to be considered a success across the "middle-income trap" South Korea and Malaysia and Argentina fall into the "middle-income trap", drawn five reasons for the Latin American countries and some Southeast Asian countries caught in the middle-income trap " missed development mode conversion timing, it is difficult to overcome the bottleneck of technological innovation, paid insufficient attention to the development of fairness, bias and institutional changes in macroeconomic policy is seriously lagging behind., Japan and South Korea successfully across most fundamental reason is the successful implementation of the economic development mode transformation and control of the widening income gap.
But there are also some other view. Example, ZhengBingWen will fall into the "middle-income trap," the Latin American countries and into the high-income East Asian "tigers" comparison, review and summarize the 30 years of reform and development of China's economy, the proposed Chinese economy has experienced and is about to undergo market-driven elements driven, efficiency-driven and innovation-driven four stages, as well as three times across He pointed out that China is currently in the stage of the efficiency drive that is "middle-income", and stressed that the upgrading of the system of market economy connotation and social transformation, and therefore he proposed systems, policies and infrastructure is a dynamic combination of success across the middle-income trap ". effective instrument Ming Jin, Guo, Tie-Shan Wang summed up the lessons in Latin American countries, Malaysia and South Korea, Latin American countries failed The reason is that these countries missed the the development mode conversion opportunity, fierce struggle between the interests of the Group and the macroeconomic policy deviation amplifying the volatility of the economy, extreme state intervention role too. become Malaysia's new economic model "out of the" middle-income The trap "reform the starting point and the breaking point, Korea's successful experience in the transformation of the mode of economic growth, industrial restructuring and economic growth momentum restructuring.
IV Conclusion and Reflections
Currently, the "middle-income trap", mostly concentrated in the development patterns and income distribution. This paper argues that for countries caught in the middle-income trap ", the core of the problem lies in the rapid economic development of these countries accumulated contradictions concentration of the outbreak, the original growth mechanism and development mode can not effectively deal with the systemic risk, leading to economic growth fluctuate significantly or stagnated thus formed, which makes the most of the long-term national hovering in the middle-income stage, the delay can not enter the high-income national ranks. "middle-income trap" is not just a distribution of income, but including China and some developing countries, how to change the engine of economic growth in a country's economic development to a certain stage in order to achieve sustainable development Therefore, the combination of this article for a discussion of the literature, we have raised the awareness of the problems of "middle-income trap" first, the "middle-income trap" is not simply equated deterioration of income distribution, the outstanding performance of the middle-income trap " The original supporting the economic development of the favorable factors exhausted so that economic stagnation First, with the rise in the cost of raw materials, the cost of capital and human resources, the low cost and the advantage of the demographic dividend are disappearing and, secondly, has relied on investment and exports two carriages industrial structure of China's economic growth after the global financial crisis has become extremely unstable system, the last 30 years of reform in China released dividends are disappearing at the same time the formation of a variety of interest groups to further reform the formation a great deal of resistance.
Second, the "middle-income trap" is more than a mere economic issue, but a social phenomenon, and it is reflected in all aspects of economic, political and social, performance decline or stagnation in economic growth, the social gap between the rich and the poor is widening, employment difficulties, social unrest, Chinese economic growth and the improvement of living standards of the people linked to the development and seek stability, and stability of Chinese society has become a sticking point, which ignored the emerging social issues in the reform and development, but merely to maintain growth to solve all problems.
Third, across the "middle-income trap" usually never balanced social development to achieve a balanced development of the state and the process which means to break the existing system of curing a correct understanding and the face of reform, and actively seek new economic growth point, change the mode of economic development, and promote the comprehensive development of the economic and social point of view, China can achieve the transformation of the mode of economic development, shortening across the "middle-income trap".
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