Dynamic evaluation of China's central region sustainable development of agriculture and Development Strategies

[Abstract] central agricultural sustainable development related to urban and rural development, to ensure food security and the advance of the "Rise of Central China" strategy. Using the analytic hierarchy found the overall evaluation of the level of the sustainable development of agriculture in the Middle, the central agricultural population, economic system, the social system and the sustainable development of resources and environment system level is generally not high and sustainable level of development of the various provinces is uneven. improve agricultural economic system and social system by increasing the level of technological innovation of the central agricultural and rural basic public services supply level sustainability, cultivate new farmers, agricultural population system, economic system, social system, as well as the ecological environment system can establish a coordination mechanism to promote the sustainable development of the central agricultural.

[Keywords] regional agricultural sustainable development, urban and rural development,, AHP, sustainability dynamic evaluation, agricultural technology innovation, the supply of public services,
I. INTRODUCTION since the mid-1980s, the worldwide rise of the ideological trend of sustainable development of agriculture, the core idea is the development of agriculture should deal with the relationship between the agricultural economy and population, society, resources and environment. Currently, our academic sector research carried out by selecting different evaluation index system or evaluation method for the evaluation of regional agricultural sustainable development.

(A choice of evaluation index system An Inquiry regional agricultural sustainable development system should include the five aspects of the sustainability of the economy, resources, environment, society and population [1] Farmer and Lu moved to adopt the multi-index Comprehensive Evaluation Method from the population, evaluated five subsystems of the economy, society, resources and environment for sustainable development of agriculture in Shaanxi Province [2], He Xiu-li think in terms of the level of agricultural development, the development of efficient, development potential, as well as the comprehensive development ability of the regional agricultural sustainable development evaluation [3] ZHANG Er-sheng and Wang Yong from ecological sustainability, economic sustainability and social sustainability of the three aspects of sustainable development of agriculture in Hainan investigate and evaluate [4]. Xu Genxing sustainable development sustainable economy, sustainable ecology, sustainable social harmonization [5].

Analytic Hierarchy Process (choice of evaluation methods promise biaryl and Liu Xinping conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the sustainability of the agriculture of the counties (cities in Hunan Province [6], Zhang Li, such as principal component analysis method to the evaluation of the Henan Province agriculture sustainable Development [7], Han Ying using both variance to determine weights of evaluation indexes Hongsipu immigrants District 1999 Zhi 2006 Nian's agricultural ecological security carried out the analysis and evaluation [8], the text I source and Deng Hongbing application of factor analysis method of Hubei can sustainable agriculture development capacity evaluation [9], Cui and Switzerland use the method of factor analysis and cluster analysis method for sustainable agricultural development in Hebei comprehensive evaluation [10], SUN Yan-ling and dawn Analytic Hierarchy Process Sichuan agricultural sustainable development ability evaluation [11], Zhao Li and Wang Shenglin use hierarchical analysis and comprehensive evaluation method of capacity for sustainable development of agriculture in Dingxi City evaluated [12].

Based on existing research results, in terms of the system and the evaluation index system of regional agricultural sustainable development, academia generally considered the regional agricultural sustainable development system is a complex system of covering population, resources, environment, economic and social aspects, all regions must be based on the actual situation of their own, according to local conditions suitable for the evaluation of the sustainable development of agriculture in the region view from existing research methods, most scholars have adopted a regional one year relevant indicators based on existing theories , the relevant data in the central region from 2001 to 2010, this paper intends to select from dynamic analysis method of combining the use of subjective weight and objective weight to determine the weight of each index, dynamic comprehensive evaluation results, so results strong objective and scientific.

Second, the central agricultural sustainable development of the Dynamic Evaluation Index System and Comprehensive Evaluation Method

(A central region of the central region of the status of the sustainable development of agriculture is an important energy base of raw materials and agricultural production base, China's agricultural population is most concentrated more prominent and the "three rural" issue areas (central region agricultural population, per capita arable land 2009 Rural Central Region 0  141 hectares of arable land per capita is only the proportion of primary industry accounting for 27  3% of the rural population of the country's total rural population accounted for 28  84% of the total population of the share of the central region the proportion of up to 57  68%, six provinces in central rural per capita net income of 4,793 yuan, lower than the national average (5,153 yuan, the central region rural Engel coefficient is 42  50, higher than the Northeast region and the eastern region.

The 2011 statistics show that of the National Bureau of Statistics: In 2010, the proportion of the primary industry of the central region was 13  03%, higher than the national average (10  1%, the eastern region (6  30% and the Northeast region (10  63%, slightly lower than the western region (13  15% the proportion of the country's total production of grain, cotton and oil were 30  6%, 27  89% and 43  36%, in addition to cotton is lower than the proportion of the country's total western (44  33% of the region, the other two were higher than the eastern, western and northeastern regions, per capita net income of rural residents in 5509  62 yuan, lower than the national average (5919  01 yuan and Northeast China (6434  5 .

In recent years, the central agricultural trend of unsustainable development, agricultural land loss of topsoil, reduce soil fertility, decline in land productivity, environmental issues have become increasingly prominent downstream river, reservoir sedimentation, severe ecological deficit of arable land (1  8543hm2 / [13 For example, a major agricultural province of Henan per capita arable land is currently only 1  22 acres, is 80% of the national per capita level is 35% of the world average level. cultivated area of ​​Henan reduce the annual rate of more than 20 million acres of 14 ].

(B central agricultural sustainable development dynamic evaluation index system six central provinces of most of the provinces is a major agricultural province, population, economy, society, resources and environment, a number of factors must be taken into account, the evaluation of the sustainable development of the central region of Agriculture affect each other, mutual restraint, mutual coordination and mutual promotion and evaluation indicators should be fully and accurately reflect the state of development of the agricultural population, society, economy, resources, environment.

To accurately assess the dynamic changes of the central region 2001-2010 sustainable agricultural development level, set specific evaluation, the theory of sustainable development as a guide, design evaluation index system based on the sustainable development capacity of the basic principles and data availability, access to large amounts of literature and learn from the results of research on the basis of agricultural economic conditions for the central region, according to the affiliation between each level indicators, build sustainable agricultural development level of the central region evaluation hierarchy model, this structural model contains a population system, the five-level indicators of the economic system, social system, resources, systems and environmental systems, with two indicators each level indicators, a total of 25 secondary indicators, as specified in Table 1 shows the basic logic of this evaluation index system: persistent demographic and social systems the ultimate goal of sustainable development of agriculture, respectively, consists of three sub-indicators and six secondary indicators, the economic system is sustained is the core of sustainable development, has six two indicators, the continuity of the resource system and environmental system is the fundamental guarantee for the sustainable development of agriculture, respectively, consists of four sub-indicators and six secondary indicators.
This article data comes mainly from the six provinces of Central Statistical Yearbook (2001-2011 and << China Statistical Yearbook >> (2001-2011, some data refer to the the calendar << national economy of the central provinces calendar << Statistical Yearbook >> and regional The number of labor transfer data from the statistical bulletin >> << labor and social security undertakings over the years, the per thousand agricultural population of township hospitals beds "and" every thousand agricultural population the township health personnel "data and Social Development Statistics Bulletin >> (2001-2010. indicators are calculated as follows: the villages affected by the level of education the proportion of population = 100 - rural illiterate population accounted for the population aged 15 and over, the proportion of the labor of agricultural GDP = agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry from the the << China Health Statistics Yearbook >> fishery output value / rural population, land productivity = total grain output / arable land, rural per capita electricity consumption = rural electricity consumption / rural population, the number of units of the total arable land area of ​​mechanical power = total power of agricultural machinery / arable land per capita food production = total grain output / total population, the intensity of use of fertilizer = fertilizer use / arable land, pesticide use intensity = amount of pesticide use / arable land area, plastic film strength = agricultural plastic film use / arable land. (C central agricultural sustainable development level analysis method of dynamic comprehensive evaluation method in the analysis of regional sustainable development has been a wide range of practical applications, but because of the Analytic Hierarchy Process inherent subjectivity too strong, so this study draws national Bureau of Statistics Science Institute sustainable development index system from five areas of population, economy, society, resources and environment to establish hierarchical model of the sustainable development of agriculture, according to Del illegal, the right combination of analytic hierarchy process to determine the various indicators weight First, by consulting with the actual experience and deeper theoretical knowledge of agricultural economic experts, to be determined the right number of indicators and related data distributed to six experts, on their own scale value of each index is given, based on the recovery results to calculate the value of each scale homogeneous and standard deviation, the calculated results of expert group to re-determine the value of the scale, the basic line Repeat until you expert advice, as the mean value of each index scale indicators mean, each index weight, experts recommend and hierarchical analysis methods to effectively combine the use of mathematical methods calculate the weights reflect the relative order of importance of each level of factors, calculated by the total ordering between all levels all The relative weight factors, and sorting and matrix consistency test [15], to ensure that the resulting weight reasonable assignment (as shown in Table 1.

In this study, using a linear Undimensionalization each index value into units relative number (specific gravity, numerical size specification in

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Third, empirical analysis

(A population sustainability dynamic evaluation can be seen from Table 2, basically an upward trend from 2001 to 2010 the population of the provinces sustainable level, but a wide gap between the level of the provinces population sustainability, population system sustainable level of development Sort Shanxi (strong, Hunan (Jiangxi (weak, Henan (weak, Hubei (poor, Anhui (poor, Shanxi highest average score, followed by Hunan, Jiangxi and Henan. produce this result because comes down to four areas:
First, in recent years, a large number of the central province of surplus rural labor outflow to the eastern region, a significant net decrease in population in 2010, according to the sixth national population census data bulletin shows that, compared to the 2000 census, the population of the eastern region's share of risen 2  41 percent, the central, western and northeastern region population proportion in decline, the population proportion of the central region fell by 1  08%.

Second, Shanxi population system Sustainability Assessment highest score, mainly because of its rural population, the proportion of lower I calculated, 2001-2010, Shanxi Province, slightly higher than the proportion of the rural population in addition to 2010 other than the average of the six central provinces, this proportion of the rest of the year is lower than the average level of the central region. the Shanxi sixth census results also indicate that, in Jiangxi Province in 2000 to 2010 the population decrease in the net increase of 39  93 million. , the level of education of the rural population in Shanxi Province in the higher levels of the central region.

Third, Hunan Province, population sustainability evaluation score higher mainly due to continuously improve the overall quality of its population., Hunan population by educational attainment significantly increased compared with 2000, the province's per 100,000 population to have a university culture degree of population rose to 2926 in 2000 to 7595 people in 2010, with a high school education increased by 11,177 people to 15,420 people, a junior high school education increased by 35,708 people to 39,528 people in 2001 to 2010 Hunan rural population average level of education higher than the average of six provinces in central, continuously improve the overall quality of the rural population in Hunan Province.

Fourth, the lowest score, mainly due to its proportion of the rural population's share of the natural population growth rate and the level of educational attainment in the central region lagging behind. Example, in 2009 and 2010 in Anhui rural Anhui Province population sustainability evaluation population by educational attainment, respectively, lower than the average level of the central region 8  59% and 4  16%, except in 2010, the proportion of Anhui rural population in the rest of the year were higher than the average level of the central region.
In recent years, despite the central provinces sustainable population level is basically an upward trend, but mainly by the central province of a massive outflow of rural surplus labor force to the eastern region, the population is a significant net decrease With the adjustment of industrial structure in the eastern coastal and upgrade, a large number of migrant workers return to central agricultural facing tremendous population pressure only through the cultivation of new farmers for the development of modern agriculture, extend agricultural industrial chain, enhance the agriculture internal capacity to absorb surplus rural labor, from a long-term perspective to be able to solve agricultural resources population issues is necessary to strengthen the rural compulsory education, increase investment in agricultural higher education, especially in agriculture, vocational and technical education, improve the labor skills of the rural labor force training, especially the training of agricultural technicians and management personnel. to active and innovative training model of the return of migrant workers to enhance their entrepreneurial capacity in rural areas to vigorously develop the rural non-agricultural industries, the longitudinal and lateral extension of the agricultural industry chain, and constantly enhance agriculture itself for the absorptive capacity of the rural labor force.

(C strengthen rural public service supply level, to improve the sustainability of social systems One is to speed up the supply of the central region of rural basic public services. Vigorously to improve compulsory education in rural areas and the level of basic health care services, establish a rural social security system, improve rural living environment constantly improving their living standards. strengthen agricultural infrastructure should be the to strengthen middle of farmland water conservancy construction, pay close attention to the implementation of the dam reinforcement work to strengthen the protection of farmland and soil improvement, and to promote agricultural mechanization efforts to enhance agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control efforts, strengthen energy conservation work in rural areas. continuously improve the organization of farmers and rural cooperative economic organizations can be effective convergence with the government to provide public services, thus helping to reduce the loss and waste of rural resources, and improve agricultural production scale and degree of market concentration, to overcome dispersion farmers to produce for the damage to the ecological environment.

(Establishing four rural resource development and ecological environment early warning mechanism is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of agricultural resources and environment of the central region, caused by the deterioration of the ecological environment in rural areas to prevent the over-exploitation of agricultural resources to establish agricultural resources and ecological compensation and repair mechanisms, to co-ordinate the agricultural population, economy and rural eco-environmental problems and to promote the coordination of the agricultural population system, economic system, social system, as well as the ecological environment system through taxes, subsidies and other measures to avoid the negative impact of urbanization and industrialization tendency of agricultural ecological environment. development.


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