Exchange rate shocks and heterogeneous enterprises and multinational production decisions

Abstract: This paper draw Antràs and Helpman model, build a South - North two-phase framework to discuss the exchange rate impact on production decisions of multinational Effects. Research shows: With the exchange rate shocks in different directions, multinational corporations to adjust their production decisions with a certain regularity When the exchange rate tends to depreciate the exchange rate impact the amount of outsourcing in the country will continue to shrink, while the amount of foreign direct investment to undertake a corresponding expansion, when the exchange rate tends to appreciate, international cooperation will likely continue to move to the relatively high wage costs, but relatively stable exchange rate competitive countries, the specific path for the "first outsourcing transfer, foreign direct investment after the transfer." to see the country from exchange rate shocks, exchange rate fluctuations (considering the direction and magnitude of production decisions on the multinational nature may produce two different effects. a. exchange shock will lead to the production of multinational boundaries and location decisions Sort fundamental change. appreciation rate is larger, the greater the degree of change in the original decision, b. at a relatively slight appreciation and depreciation of the entire region, the exchange rate impact is just starting conversion to adjust the decision threshold effect (such as lead or lag, and the original order making converter remains unchanged.

Keywords: exchange rate shocks, heterogeneous enterprise, investment location, multinational

I. INTRODUCTION early 2000s to Melitz "trade within the industry the impact of resource allocation and productivity," a text as a symbol in the international trade theory studies began showing a heterogeneous enterprise-based research new trends. Baldwin put on heterogeneous enterprise The series of trade studies collectively referred to as the "new new trade theory" [1]. this area is known to be following the new trade theory, trade and economic growth theory and interest groups and trade policy after the new research field of international trade papers focus download.

Currently, the new trade theory in the new framework, the basic form two systems: one category is represented Melitz, focusing on differences in productivity of the enterprise into the new trade theory, and thus analysis of enterprise business model options, which, Melitz to Kruger Man of differentiated products, economies of scale and monopolistic competition model, by introducing firm heterogeneity to explain the differences in international trade and export enterprise behavior, differences in productivity for enterprises into international trade and investment laid the cornerstone of the theoretical framework [ 2]. Helpman etc. to expand the Melitz model, to further consider the establishment of overseas branches of multinational decision-making, that enterprises in the form of exports or FDI internationalize its research shows companies how to choose exports or FDI behavior is determined by the production efficiency of pre-determined and only the most productive enterprises will choose FDI, productivity at a medium level businesses to choose exports, and low productivity enterprises only in the domestic market [3]. Bernard heterogeneous enterprise and the like as well as new trade theory combine inter-industry trade, trade liberalization concerns, companies, countries and industries how they interact, how resources companies within the industry and through inter-industry reconfiguration, a comprehensive study of intra-industry trade, inter-industry trade, industry peers heterogeneity enterprises (export and do not export enterprises in efficiency between trade liberalization and the relationship between income distribution and many other issues [4].

New new trade theory under the framework of another context is the study of endogenous firm boundary decisions. Antràs mainly represented by the new institutional economics integration into the thinking of incomplete contracts and outsourcing business model selection, which is the international trade theory ideas and learn from other areas of the product of interacting with each other which, Antràs will GrossmanHartMoore property views and analytical methods of the enterprise trade ideas HelpmanKrugman combines a theoretical framework, the proposed boundaries of the firm based on a model of incomplete contracts multinational positioning and control decisions, emphasizing the capital intensity and configuration of residual claims in the corporate decision-making process of internationalization of the role [5]. Antràs and Helpman's heterogeneous enterprise will Melitz trade model and Antràs enterprise boundary model of endogenous be combined to further consider the "friction of incomplete contracts also exist within the enterprise integration", "production there are two inputs," the situation, explore the incompleteness of contracts for heterogeneous enterprise boundaries, outsourcing (outsourcing and insourcing (insourcing the impact of strategic choice for the study of corporate globalization and heterogeneous enterprise organizational decision-making provides a new perspective [6]. they made: low R & D intensity sectors, companies tend to do outsourcing high productivity, low productivity, companies tend to do insourcing while the high R & D intensity sectors, the highest productivity of foreign companies tend integration. followed tendencies do outsourcing. Again it, tend to domestic vertical integration. lowest productivity of enterprises, tend to do inside the bag, and even out of the market, this model is well explains the wide variety of existing international trade and investment patterns coexist. Acemoglu, etc. are further extended to "there are several intermediate inputs, the Multilateral incomplete contract" case of enterprise production mode decision [7]. Antràs and Helpman model will generalize their previous study, there are different degrees of contract allows the friction and allows the extent because of different inputs and between countries, the changes proposed contract system would produce different degrees of organizational forms affect the view [8 ].

In recent years, the field of literature is mainly related to new developments and new trade theory Literature Review on the evolution of which, some studies have focused on the Melitz heterogeneous enterprise represented clue [9-10], such as "new international trade theory Trends - based heterogeneous enterprise research "(Chen Lili [9]," exports, investment and corporate productivity: Western trade theory microscopic Progress "(Hung Luen Ying Luo can give birth [10]. Other studies have focused on the contract system for examine the impact of international trade [11-12], such as "the theory of international trade and investment developments: New Institutional Economics" (Fan-Paul [11], "Compact Implementation Research Review on the impact of international trade" (Zhang Jie, Zhi-Biao Liu [12] . while there are some studies on the new trade two new research system are introduced [13-14-15], such as "trade, foreign direct investment and international production: A Literature Review" (Sheng Bin, Ma Tao [13], "International trade and investment the new development: Based on the firm heterogeneity and incomplete contracts perspective" (Tang iron ball, Wang Bin [14], "product division under Western trade theory new development" (Tian, ​​Hou Chun [15 ].

These new trade theory at home and abroad about the new direction of the research literature, basically there is a common characteristic: mostly ignored expedition rate uncertainties on the heterogeneity of enterprise business model options, which may play a role. Based on this study perspective, this paper draw new new trade theory representative Antràs and Helpman [6] model framework to discuss the impact of factors on the exchange rate heterogeneity multinational investment location decisions effects and production patterns with the model is different: First, This study focused on changes in the external macro-environmental factors (such as exchange rate shocks on multinational production mode and location choice was studied. Secondly, concerns different perspectives. writer based perspective of developing countries to study exchange rate shocks on developing countries' foreign investment flows "and by the outsourcing affect" trade flow "of mutual influence, which is currently under the Chinese exchange rate fluctuations frequently how to maintain the stable development of foreign economic and practical significance.

For the study of exchange rate shocks on the location and mode of multinational production decisions affect the results, we use a two-stage analysis process: the first stage, there is no exchange rate impact conditions, multinational production decisions (including the location and mode of the second phase, introduction of exchange rate shocks, once again examine changes in multinational production decisions from which discover how multinational corporations with the exchange rate shocks have made changes in the magnitude and direction of the regularity of the reaction as well as the countries studied to attract "foreign" and "outsourcing" the amount of affected.

Second, the model is constructed based multinational mode of operation, this paper constructs a transnational production and marketing of multi-national framework: in the developed countries (State 0 R & D enterprise, located in two countries (State 1 and State 2 processing enterprises ( two competitive international markets, shown in Figure 1. manufacturing companies in the country an object of study of this article.

Figure 3 with the exchange rate impact of R & D companies in developed countries is expected to adjustments in production decisions (ωσ> 1 + σlnω

Figure 3, the horizontal axis represents expected exchange rate volatility, exchange rate appreciation indicated on the left, on the right represents exchange rate depreciation, the more away from the origin, which means that greater exchange rate volatility which, Δq * 1 indicates π1o π2o profit curve coincides with the exchange rate expected volatility critical value, Δq * 2 indicates π1v profit curve coincides with π2v expected volatility rate thresholds. vertical axis represents the efficiency of the development of different enterprises, the higher the efficiency of the larger ordinate. Note that we will longitudinal axis of the zoom, its meaning representation under uncertainty (exchange rate shocks is zero R & D enterprise of production optimal decision ordering. purpose is to facilitate the exchange of different degree and direction of the impact of the decisions made to sort the results compared.

Study found that in developing countries the magnitude and direction of the exchange rate impact on R & D enterprise mode of production in developed countries and regional decision-making influence does exist a certain regularity. Overall, exchange rate shocks (regardless of the direction of how, in essence does not change Antràs and Helpman [6] proposed the basic structure of decision-making sort: low efficiency of R & D companies have chosen to remain in domestic development, R & D companies choose to outsource moderate efficiency cooperation and efficient integration of cooperative research and development enterprise is selected, but if standing on the perspective of exchange rate shocks country Look, expected appreciation of the exchange rate, international cooperation activities gradually transferred to other higher wage costs competitive countries. Moreover, the specific path is the "first outsourcing transfer, direct investment after the transfer." This choice results in a deterministic scenario existence is impossible, therefore, developed corporate decision-making under the impact of the exchange rate is still sorting a marked change.

In addition, exchange rate shocks also affect the decision threshold point position conversion occurs with some regularity adjustments. Specifically, with the expected gradual depreciation of the exchange rate, making conversion threshold point θ1 and θ2 are the front, and the greater the depreciation rate, Pre more about the decision threshold point position determination is more complex, depending on the relative wage of two developing size of the difference. Specifically, when the relative wage meet ωσ> 1 + σlnω, the decision threshold point adjustment path is: both rear → Front (outsourcing, rear (integration → unchanged (outsourcing, front (integration, when the relative wage levels to meet ωσ <1 + σlnω, this time the decision threshold point adjustment path: both rear → rear (outsourcing, front (integration → unchanged (outsourcing, rear (integration. Due to limited space, the corresponding graphical representation omitted.

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Fourth, the main conclusions of the first, with the magnitude and direction of the impact of exchange rate differences, R & D companies in developed countries to adjust their production decisions show a certain regularity. Expected exchange rate tends to depreciate when , the international outsourcing business volume will continue to shrink, while the corresponding expansion of direct investment at this time, engaged in the development of transnational business enterprises increased, when the expected exchange rate tends to appreciate, the international co-operation will continue to be transferred to other higher wage costs, exchange rates relative competitive and stable country, at this time, engage in transnational enterprises operating efficiency threshold due to the relative wage gap between developing countries and to some extent the degree of lowering or raising.

Secondly, according to the magnitude and direction of the impact of differences in exchange rate fluctuations on the R & D enterprise production decisions may lead to two different types of effects: First, subject to exchange rate shocks from developing countries perspective, compared with certainty, when the exchange rate appreciation more significantly, the appreciation will offset the loss of profits resulting from the country's comparative advantage in labor costs bring profit margins, exchange rate shocks will lead to the production of multinational corporations and the international border location decisions undergone a fundamental change. greater appreciation of, the original decision and the greater the degree of conversion order changes. two is when the exchange rate at a relatively slight impact of the appreciation and depreciation of the entire region, the role of the exchange rate on the cost of reducing wage costs with the country's comparative advantages are superimposed, more enhanced the original decision Conversion sort, then the impact of exchange rate adjustment only play the role of decision-making positions conversion threshold (such as lead or lag.

Overall, a country's currency appreciation would lead to the country the opportunity to participate in international cooperation tends to reduce the international traffic accordingly transferred to its "competition partner country", the specific path for the "first outsourcing transfer, direct investment after the transfer." With increased appreciation of the country to undertake outsourcing and foreign direct investment will continue to be "squeezed." On the contrary, exchange rate depreciation may lead to opportunities for international cooperation in the country tends to increase, and to undertake direct investment of the outsourcing business (and the resulting Trade produces a "substitution effect." As a developing country, China is currently in the RMB exchange rate channel, despite its comparative advantage of cheap labor costs, the appreciation of the magnitude of the problem or need careful treatment, which for maintaining China's "trade Flow "and" foreign flow "of sustainability and stability of employment of workers are of great significance.

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