Papers Category:Economics Papers
- International Economic Papers
Post Time:2013-1-31 9:31:00
Abstract: The global financial crisis hit the global economy, leading to a severe recession, the economic transition countries also suffer.
Response to the financial crisis and the impact of the transition countries have implemented economic stimulus plan, and take various measures to stabilize the financial sector, to support the real economy, and vigorously stimulate consumption and investment demand, has received results. these important initiatives for countries in transition in the post-financial crisis period to restore economic growth has provided preconditions paper as a basis for the post-crisis period, China and Russia transition countries the basic trend of economic development, further in-depth analysis, that vigorously readjust the economic structure, transform the economic growth and economic development, it built on the foundation of sustainable development, for a time to recover and transition countries to promote economic development of the fundamental way out.
Keywords: transition countries, economic development, post-crisis period
Since 2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global financial crisis ravaged the world, hit the global economy, leading to a severe recession. Global financial crisis on the impact of transition countries is more serious, Russia and Central and Eastern Europe since 2008, in the second half began to fall into a deep recession, a number of countries in transition and even a currency crisis occur simultaneously, the stock market crisis, the debt crisis, the real economy crisis, economic growth crisis and political crisis. Faced with these crises and resulting financial turmoil and economic downturn, income decline rising unemployment and other conditions, transition countries have to implement economic stimulus plan, and take various measures to support the real economy, and maintain financial sector stability, stimulate consumption and investment demand, increasing unemployment relief to alleviate the crisis on the adverse social impact. Some countries also won the international financial institutions and organizations for financial assistance. transition countries to get rid of these initiatives on the international financial crisis, especially after the financial crisis to restore economic growth, played a crucial role in papers downloaded.
One, gradually out of the shadow of the crisis of the country's economic transition
Gradual recovery in the international financial markets, the global economy is gradually emerging from crisis, coupled with the country's economic stimulus plan transition work, the vast majority of countries in transition economies to varying degrees of recovery growth, and some transition countries to restore economic growth even faster.
(A faster out of the international financial crisis, China's economy
Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China adheres to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the full implementation of the international financial crisis and the economic stimulus package plan programs. Moreover, China's economic stimulus package is the largest country in transition, for 2009 economic recovery has played a key role in Table 1 reflects the Chinese government invested 4 trillion yuan (accounting for 12% of total GDP for the implementation of fiscal stimulus measures.
Since four trillion yuan huge investment driven, and other related measures, so that China took the lead in the world to achieve the overall economic recovery to the good. This trend mainly reflected in the following five aspects: First, the downward trend in economic growth to quickly reversed. Chinese 2009 economic growth rate was 8.7% (economic growth of 6.2% from the first quarter, the way the line from 7.9% in the quarter, 9.1% in the third quarter, 10.7% in the fourth quarter. two is the main price In 2009 the CPI index bottoming continuous decline in nine months later, in November turned up, in December rose 1.9%, PPI after 12 consecutive months of decline, in December rose 1.7% in the first turn. Thirdly, the steady rise of the national economy momentum obviously .2009, the annual investment in fixed assets completed 22.5 trillion yuan, a real increase of 35.2%, the annual cumulative total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 16.9 percent real. Fourth exports fast recovery .2009 December, exports growth from negative Growth to rapid growth in export volumes to return to pre-financial crisis, the highest level of 96%.
Fifth is obviously the better the situation in the financial sector, mainly reflected in: loose macro-financial environment is stable, money supply grew faster .2009 12 end of broad money supply (M2) amounted to 60.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.6%. Meanwhile, the financial institutions of RMB loans and deposits rapid growth, the end of December were up 31.74 percent and 28.21 percent. nation's foreign exchange reserves reached 23,992 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 23.29% .
(Two slow recovery of the Russian economy
Russia is affected by the international financial crisis, the most affected countries in transition one subject since 2008 since the second half of the severe impact of the international financial crisis, after nine years of growth in the Russian economy into a deep recession, but also by the turmoil in the financial markets evolve into a financial crisis, Russia's economic and financial system withstood a severe test in Table 2 reflects the economic situation in Russia, 2008-2009.
The face of the serious impact of the international financial crisis and the resulting deep recession, Russia has adopted a number of bailouts and economic stimulus measures: First, inject the banking system in order to maintain the stability of the banking system, and to ensure that the financial system and the domestic currency stable second is to vigorously support the real economy, especially for large companies (including some major support SMEs to take measures three important sectors of the economy for some to take special protective measures, depending on the industry to take a targeted assistance program. Fourth maintain social stability, people's livelihood, strengthen national social security, greatly improve the level of old-age security of residents, reduce unemployment and increase employment, thereby honor the Government's commitment to social welfare for all. According to IMF data, Russia stimulus package In 2009 and 2010 the proportion of GDP reached 4.1% and 1.3%, Table 3 shows the Russian anti-crisis measures in the relevant circumstances.
Implementation of these measures in the Russian economy in the second half of 2009 there have been signs of recovery: First, the 2009 ruble devaluation after the first rise, the annual devaluation phenomenon does not appear, thus avoiding significant losses. According to the Russian Central Bank data, 2009 January-December, the real effective ruble exchange rate fell by 3.8% . Secondly, Russia to maintain the overall stability of the banking sector, some experts predict no "second wave of the crisis." Russia's government and central bank interventions enhanced depositor confidence in the banking sector, resident deposits in 2009 increased by 27%, increased the stability of the banking sector. Third, the real economy in the first half of 2009 despite a severe decline, but in the second half due to promote the growth of government spending Domestic demand has picked up, so that output gradually restored. seen from Table 2, Russia 2009 GDP fell by 7.9%, slightly lower than expected fourth quarter GDP .2009 fell only 3.2% better than expected economic recovery. Meanwhile, after Seasonally adjusted figures show that the Russian economy in the third quarter of 2009 began a weak recovery in the fourth quarter to accelerate the trend. Fourth, the financial position of the Russian Federation should be better than expected In 2009, as oil export revenues increase the budget deficit to 5.9% of GDP, accounting for GDP 7% did not exceed the warning level . entering in 2010, Russia's economic situation further improved .2010 in the first quarter, GDP grew by 2.9% reversing the 2009 fourth quarter -3.8% downward trend. According to the Russian Federal Statistics As of April 2010 data, Russia's economic situation continues to improve, unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in March to 8.2% in April, as 4, the lowest since April, total retail trade rose by 4.2%, to achieve four consecutive months of growth, real wages rose by 6% in October 2008, the largest increase since the residents real disposable income grew by 3.7% ruble-dollar exchange rate for the fourth consecutive month appreciation, April industrial production index rose 5.7 percent in March following the rise again after a 10.4% investment in fixed capital grew by 2.3% in October 2008 is also the largest increase since .
(Three Eastern European countries economy bottoming out
By the profound impact of the international financial crisis, countries in transition economies in Eastern Europe fell sharply in 2009, Table 4 shows the number of the country's economic growth.
Other data show that the second quarter of 2009, Croatia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Serbia and Ukraine, and other countries have been converted to positive growth in industrial output in Poland is relatively strong domestic demand and maintain positive GDP growth in Figure 1 China and Russia, reflecting the country's industrial output growth. Links to free download http://eng.hi138.com
On the one hand, to improve the international demand, coupled with currency devaluation, to a certain extent, enhance the competitiveness of their products, and promote the Eastern European transition countries exports from mid-2008 to mid-2009, during the international financial crisis, foreign trade Promotion of the Polish GDP growth of 3.2%, growth of 0.5% Czech Republic, Slovakia, up 1.6% Hungary 7.3% (but its domestic demand fell by 10.5% , especially in the fourth quarter of 2009, the global economic recovery contributed to Eastern Europe Some transition countries export growth.
Figure 2 transition country exports growth Source: UniCredit.
CEE Quarterly, 2010Q2.
On the other hand, despite the severe impact of the international financial crisis, but Russia and Eastern European countries the banking system does not appear systemic bankruptcy, there is no general loss of depositor confidence. Nevertheless, due to the economic recovery is slow, loan delinquencies rise, banks had to cut lending to the private sector in order to repair their balance sheets, thus affecting consumption and investment demand, can not effectively promote economic growth. Figure 3 shows the transition state bank loans to the private sector (Figure 3
In summary, after the international financial crisis in transition economies have been able to gradually get rid of the serious impact of the crisis appears to the good economic situation, mainly due to the transition countries decisively implemented economic stimulus and bailouts, in particular measures to vigorously to support the real economy and stabilize the financial sector, do everything possible to stimulate consumption and investment demand, increasing unemployment and vulnerable groups bailout. transition countries practice shows that the practical effect of these policies and measures are more obvious.
Second, the post-crisis transition countries, the basic trend of economic development
Since the international financial crisis, because the world is widely taken to stimulate the economy and other interventions, not only the national economy but also the global economy has resumed growth, particularly in Asia, strong economic growth and U.S. consumer demand recovery of the global Source: UniCredit, CEE Quarterly 2010Q2.
A role in promoting economic growth in view of this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF raised its 2010 global economic growth is expected in the updated World Economic Outlook << >> << Global Financial Stability Report and >> report, IMF will 2010 global economic growth expected from the previous 4.2% to 4.6%, the World Bank also believes that the global economy is showing signs of steady recovery. According to the World Bank's latest economic forecast released ,2010-2011 global GDP will increase by 2.9% -3.3 percent. Yet the global financial markets remain fragile and the European sovereign debt crisis and the possible escalation and increased market uncertainty, not only will drag on economic growth in the euro zone, will drag the global economy back legs, delaying the global economic recovery process of the World Bank pointed out that if any of a sovereign debt crisis in European countries, the debt default or market confidence crisis situation worse, and trade and credit contraction will inevitably severely depleted curb global GDP growth and, thus, can not be exclude some countries into a second recession may . post-crisis transition countries economic growth and development is faced with the global economic situation is getting better, but increased uncertainty and variables such a development.
(A recent basic situation of China's economic development
International Monetary Fund (IMF response to the international financial crisis on China's initiatives as well as post-crisis recovery in the global economy China's important role to be fully affirmed. IMF 2010 年 7 27 release reported that the Chinese government adopted in the financial crisis "swift, decisive and effective" policy measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis on China's economy, and to ensure that China leading the global economic recovery. The report concluded that, in fiscal policy, the Chinese government has stepped up infrastructure construction, pension, health care, education spending efforts to reduce the tax rate in the monetary policy, China's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate and deposit reserve ratio, the abolition of the restrictions on credit growth, prompting substantial increase in bank credit in the role of multiple policies, the Chinese economy Since 2009 began to accelerate recovery in the second quarter, and is expected to continue to maintain strong growth momentum in the future. Meanwhile, China's economic recovery of the region and the global economy will have a "significant and positive" spillover effect . IMF forecasts, as leader Chinese economic growth in 2010 is expected to reach 10.5%, thanks to a strong rebound in exports and resilient domestic demand growth is expected .2011 9.6% in addition to IMF, the World Bank predicts that in 2010 China's GDP grew by 9.5%, 2011 growth of 8.7 percent, will maintain steady growth  for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD also on China's economic development and its prospects for the forecast that in 2010 China's economy will continue to grow strongly, in a package of economic stimulus plan under the effect of GDP is expected to grow 11% in 2011 despite the slowdown, will reach 9.7 percent due to worsening terms of trade and domestic demand remains strong, in 2010 the current account surplus may continue to decline, accounting for GDP, 2.75%, and then rose to 3.4% in 2011 .
Whether the IMF or the World Bank and the OECD, its economic development in the post-crisis period, China's positive comments and forecast is based on the financial crisis, the Chinese government adopted effective policies and measures to stimulate the economy and the post-crisis period was driven economic stimulus plan The strong economic recovery in the Chinese government to the 2010's 4 trillion yuan investment (12% of total GDP, not only greatly promoted China's economic growth, but also led to the world, especially in East Asia's economic growth from the next one period, the 4 trillion yuan investment effect will be further demonstrated, coupled with the Chinese government's new economic development policy objectives and have taken a number of other important measures, the next few years China's economic development will have a positive impact. A basic The conclusion: the future of China's economy will not only continue to show a good trend, but will gradually enter the expansion and rapid development.
1 China can vary according to the economic development of the situation and make timely economic policies and development goals effectively adjust
In the international financial crisis when, in December 2008 8-10 meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference, clearly stated that "to maintain growth, expand domestic demand, adjusting structure, promoting reform and benefit people's livelihood," the major initiatives and policy objectives which, to maintain growth as the top priority of economic work in 2009. Around this center, the state has promulgated a series of policies to stimulate the economy, such as the implementation of the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the introduction of expanding domestic demand. " ten countries ", arranged four trillion yuan investment, has repeatedly cut interest rates, and deploy financial" national nine "to solve problems of SMEs, etc., when the expansion of domestic demand to maintain growth as a fundamental way, will accelerate the transformation of development mode and structural adjustment as the main direction of capital growth. Visible, "growth" is a masterstroke, "expanding domestic demand, readjusting the structure" is to achieve "growth" objectives important means and guarantee.
2009 "growth" objectives achieved and (GDP grew by 8.7% in the post-crisis period, particularly in 2010 and the development goals of economic development with the mission to become the focus of attention .2009 5-7 December meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference proposed 2010 general requirements for economic work are: to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, according to the new situation and new efforts to improve the policy relevance and flexibility, in particular, to pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, more emphasis on promoting economic development mode and economic restructuring, more emphasis on promoting reform and opening up and independent innovation, enhance the vitality and momentum of economic growth, more emphasis on improving people's livelihood, maintaining social harmony and stability, pay more attention to co-ordinate domestic and international situations, efforts to achieve stable and rapid economic development .2010 To expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand increased focus on enhancing consumer stimulating effect on economic growth, while "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" is The central economic work conference, one of the main tasks .2010 June 5, Finance Minister Xie spoke at the G20 meeting also reiterated that China in 2010 will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy and According to the domestic economic situation, a good grasp of policy intensity and focus, focus on expanding domestic demand, adjust and optimize the structure, accelerate the transformation of economic development, and promote stable and rapid economic development  Therefore, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, accelerate economic development change is 2010 and for a period of China's economic development policy objectives focus on this, IMF, World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts were optimistic about China's economy in 2010 will grow by 10.5%, 9.5% and 11% , in 2011 it will grow by 9.6%, 8.7% and 9.7%. Meanwhile, some economists worry that China will be even overheating economy, Yixianrong believes that under the pull of the Troika, in 2010 China's economy Do not worry will not be completed in early control of the government work report set goals, but do not worry about the second half of 2010 the downside risks to economic growth, should be worried about economic growth in 2010 is too high and not more than 12% of economic overheating [ 11].
(2) investment and export dual-pull effect on the economy
National Bureau of Statistics data show that in 2009 GDP growth stimulating "Troika", the final consumption's contribution to economic growth rate of 52.5 percent, 4.6 percentage points from GDP growth, the contribution of investment to economic growth rate of 92.3 percent, driving GDP growth of 8 percent, foreign demand that "net exports" contribution to economic growth was negative 44.8 percent, down 3.9 percentage points from GDP growth negatively. negative export growth and even double-digit decline, which in recent decades the first time in years, while the 2010 investment and exports will pull effect on the economy from the investment perspective, China is committed to stimulate the market demand, especially investment demand .2009 held at the end of the Central Economic Work Conference stressed, in 2010 to maintain appropriate growth of investment especially in May 2010, the central government to the "new 36" form once again actively encourage private capital investment in most industries in the economy, especially in infrastructure and some monopoly industries has been suggested that this could become the next 5 - 10 years of China's economic development and reform an important impetus from exports, in 2010 GDP contribution of exports to China will not only from negative to positive, and the contribution of increased exports in 2010 China will become the major driving force of economic growth. exports dropped rebound in investment in 2009 will also stimulate economic growth to investment and economic growth driven by exports.
3. The transformation of economic development mode and economic restructuring as the main theme
Change the mode of economic development and economic restructuring is related to the overall development of China's economy a major issue and, therefore, China's current and future medium and long term major strategic task facing .2009 held at the end of the Central Economic Work Conference stressed the need to "increase the economic structural adjustment efforts to improve the quality and efficiency of economic development. "This is the next period China's economic development the main line and the main theme of the international financial crisis on China's economy and the impact of China's economic development after the crisis highlights the economic restructuring and transformation of the mode of economic development an important sex on the one hand, economic development pattern and economic restructuring is further away from the international financial crisis, post-crisis period to consolidate and develop the good momentum of economic growth, the need for the other, change the mode of economic development and economic restructuring is to ensure that China improve economic growth and development of quality and efficiency, and enhance competitiveness and achieve sustainable economic development in the long-term measures after the financial crisis, China's economy is at a new turning point in the restructuring can be said to gradually shift to a new growth engine structure adjustment and transformation of economic structure from three aspects: First, to promote economic growth from over-reliance on investment and export-led to rely on consumption, investment and exports change. two is from relying mainly on secondary industry to rely on first, second and tertiary industries jointly driving economic growth into the third is from relying mainly on resource consumption to rely mainly on scientific and technological progress, improved quality and innovation in management of these measures is to ensure that after the financial crisis China's steady economic growth and development real momentum.
(Two recent economic developments in Russia and Eastern European countries, the basic trend Russia's economy in the second half of 2009 has improved since the first quarter of 2010 and gradually recover.
IMF in April 2010, a report predicted that in 2010 the Russian economy will grow by 4% in 2011 to an increase of 3.3%, while according to the World Bank predicts that in 2010 Russia's real GDP will grow by 5% to 5.5%, in 2011 will grow by 3.5% in Table 5 reflects the World Bank's global economic growth and the growth forecast for the Russian economy.
Russian Central Bank Deputy Governor Wu Liu Akayev predicted, as the world economic recovery, in 2010 Russia's oil, gas and other traditional export products, prices will rise in oil prices will be higher than .2010 $ 58 a barrel high official forecasts 10-15 dollars, reflecting market supply and demand balance of the price is about 70-80 dollars per barrel due to oil and natural gas prices, the Russian economy to grow by 4% -5% of the Russian Central Bank predicts that by 2010 Russia will continue to maintain trade surplus of close to 2009 level of $ 110 billion. rubles will gradually transition to the floating exchange rate, in 2010 Russia will grow by 20% credit  The Russian Minister of Economic Development 纳比乌琳娜 announced that as of the end of May 2010, Russia's economic growth rate was 5.8%, the unemployment rate fell to 7.5 percent if economic growth and the unemployment rate from two factors, Russia has emerged from the crisis.
According to the latest data, the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in June 2010 revealed that the Russian economy has almost reached pre-crisis growth rate of about 99.1% in 2008, the development trend is good (and the World Bank predicted that only the end of 2012 Russia's real GDP be possible to reach pre-crisis levels, of course, in 2010 the further growth of the Russian economy mainly depends on the favorable changes in oil prices, fiscal stimulus and monetary easing credit crunch eased, an increase in employment and consumer spending growth and other factors.
Taken together, the Russian economy after the financial crisis will continue to show a positive trend for the better, it is because:
First, the Central Bank of Russia continued to implement loose monetary policy to stimulate banks to increase lending to the real sector because of the Russian government's strong support and improve liquidity in the banking sector systemic risk can be greatly reduced. Moreover, in order to stimulate economic recovery Russia's central bank since 2009, has 13 consecutive slightly reduced the refinancing rate, interest rates four times in 2010. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin May 21, 2010 pointed out that the Russian Central Bank refinancing rate at a record low of 8% (in fact, since June 1, 2010, the Russian Central Bank refinancing rate determined by 7.75% per annum, mainly from the financial crisis level of interest rates as high as 25% to 11% -12%, subprime lending rate to 13% -14% , 2010 bank lending is expected to grow 5% -10% (while the Russian central bank governor Ignatieff predicts that in 2010 the Russian banking sector loans will increase by 15%. Putin believes that Russia does not currently exist bank liquidity problems [13 ] He said that Russia's banking system has emerged from the crisis risk, banks have started to expand the size of loans the economic field, almost all banks have sufficient liquidity to support loan growth. Data show that as of 2010 In June, the Bank of Russia holding 2 trillion rubles (about $ 64 billion in liquid assets, half of which is held in the form of central bank bonds. Russia's central bank said that since June 2010, the Russian investment banking positive significant growth on the real sector loan growth was evident.
Second, the Russian economy can emerge from the crisis, in large part thanks to sound budgetary policy. Putin on April 20, 2010 in the State Duma on the 2009 government work report made that the government adopt fiscal budget policy to help the economy more smoothly through the most dangerous phase of the economic crisis, out of the recession, while the government also managed to avoid financial collapse, and this is an increase of 27.4% in the budget expenditure, revenue decreased 29% in the case do The present government is phasing out emergency measures, and improve the effect of budget expenditures Russian financial stability of the important measures is to reduce the budget deficit .2009 November 20, the Russian State Duma finally passed three times in 2010, 2011 and 2012, the federal budget deficit .2010 federal budget will reach 290 trillion rubles, or about 6.8 percent of GDP deficit .2011 plans to reduce to 1.9 trillion rubles, accounting for 4% of GDP, while the 2012 annual deficit to 1.6 trillion rubles, accounting for 3% of gross domestic product.
Third, the post-financial crisis period, Russia will continue to take effective measures to support the real economy, continue to maintain the real economy stimulus. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the end of February 2010 that reduce support for the real economy is still too early Russia will not give the necessary anti-crisis plan, but the anti-crisis plan should be more to do with technological innovation and structural reforms linked to his view the next few years Russia to support the real economy and the direction of economic development priorities and major tasks are: First, to stimulate domestic demand, the first is to stimulate the automotive and construction industries needs, implementation of existing housing construction projects and major infrastructure projects. second is to expand economic growth, based on the realization of economic and export diversification. third is to implement a prudent monetary credit policy, reduce the budget deficit and maintain macroeconomic stability. Fourth, to provide state guarantees for large enterprises, the implementation of systematic measures to strengthen the resource base of the banking sector to increase lending to the real economy efforts. achieve these objectives and tasks as measures One, in 2010 the Russian government earmarked 07.6 billion rubles to support agricultural production. Russia also allocated 33.5 billion rubles to support domestic automobile industry, the government promised in 2020 to allocate more than 1 trillion rubles direct assistance funds to support the automotive industry development  The Russian government said that the future will focus on Support 1 500 pairs of great significance to the national economy of the enterprise.
Fourth, according to the Russian government has approved a 2011 years ago, an innovative economic development programs, innovation-based economy in the last couple of years the proportion of Russian industry should be increased to 5.8% in 6.7% to 2020 in accordance with the Russian government vision Russian innovation model of economic development should ensure that key economic sector labor productivity increased 3-5 times, reducing the amount of energy produced by 1.6-1.7 times. GDP in the high-tech sector growth in the proportion of 17% -20% (2007 years is 10% -11%, for scientific research and experimental design work expenses increased by 2.5% to 3% (1.1% in 2007, according to forecasts, industrial enterprises in technological innovation to 2020 the proportion will be increased to 40% - 50% (in 2007, only 8.5% of the total production of innovative products that proportion increased to 25% -35% (in 2007, only 5.5%, whereby the per capita GDP indicator should be more than 30,000 U.S. dollars (2007 to 14000 U.S. .
Fifth, the Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that to improve the domestic investment environment, the Russian government has formulated a plan of action the next few years, are trying to make Russia once again become an attractive country for foreign investment. Accordance with the Government's plan, in the future two or three years, foreign direct investment in Russia, shall revert to 600-700 billion dollars.
According to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development Deputy Minister Keliepaqi forecast, 2010 Russia's economic growth is expected to reach 3% -3.5%, and he believes that if controlled, it can be sustained in 2009 the 3rd and 4th quarter momentum of development, 2010 the level of economic growth in Russia can even reach 6 percent in the next three years, the average speed of Russia's economic growth is expected to reach 4% -4.5% .
As for the Eastern European countries, the European sovereign debt crisis, the EU economic recovery appears variable, and thus the Eastern European countries in the coming economic recovery uncertainty. Because trade channels to see, many Eastern European countries dependent on exports of Western Europe, from the capital channel perspective, Eastern European countries rely heavily on foreign direct investment, and most of the major banks led by the Western European banks, thereby weakening the euro is bound to affect Eastern European countries' exports. Meanwhile, massive capital outflows would exacerbate the shortage of funds in Eastern Europe and the credit crunch, the drag on the economy recovery, of course, in the Eastern European countries also have good momentum of development, such as Poland, it has withstood the financial crisis, is Europe and Central Asia, 24 countries in the output of one of the few countries in the world is not shrinking, according to IMF predicts economic growth in Poland in 2010 to reach 2.75% in 2011 to reach 3% GDP growth in Ukraine in 2010 was approximately 6% in the first half, which is 15.9% of GDP in 2009 Kuangxiang stark control . like Poland, Ukraine and Eastern European transition countries such as the Czech Republic, for a time to the good trend of economic development is obvious.
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Third, concluding comments
The international financial crisis on the country's economic transition had a serious impact and shock in response to the challenges of the international financial crisis, transition countries have taken a variety of relief measures, including providing liquidity to the financial sector, to support the real economy, ease the crisis to the residents of the adverse social impacts, etc. However, the measures taken by both countries to the same point, there are also great differences, which is the initial countries in the pre-crisis economic and financial conditions are closely related. initial condition is better and has a strong pre-crisis economic strength of the country, there may be more room to implement expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy, while countries with poor initial conditions may require substantial fiscal adjustment, it is difficult to implement effective fiscal stimulus and bailouts.
Chinese government 4 trillion yuan (accounting for 12% of total GDP fiscal stimulus measures are the largest countries in transition, the massive fiscal stimulus measures also led to the world, especially in East Asia's economic growth in Russia has a low level of public debt, large fiscal surplus in 2009 of its economic stimulus package in the G20 is also the largest funding for anti-crisis plan to reach 2 trillion rubles Russian .2009 June 2009 the government introduced a program of anti-crisis measures, The plan provides for the Russian government measures to cope with the international financial crisis, the seven priorities, including: fulfillment of the State's social obligations to the people, the further development of industry and science and technology, to stimulate domestic demand in order to restore economic growth, development, innovation and the transformation of economic structure, improve market mechanisms, in order to eliminate barriers to business activities, create powerful financial system, maintain macroeconomic stability, enhance domestic and foreign investor confidence and so on. primary measures to stabilize the financial sector, followed by the strengthening of social protection measures, Furthermore the traffic , automotive, agriculture and defense sector-specific support tax cuts is an important stimulus . According to expert estimates, from October 2008 to December 2009, Russia's anti-crisis measures to provide real economy approximately 2.1-2.5 trillion rubles resources.
In contrast, most of the Eastern European countries, fiscal stimulus measures smaller scale, some countries even had to take austerity measures to correct macroeconomic imbalances. Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine other eight countries receiving IMF assistance loans, the authorities' efforts to reduce expenditure, improve the financial situation. Estonia also implemented a tight fiscal policy. Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia have adopted a relatively expansionary fiscal policy. Poland has a relatively healthy Public Finance of the Czech banking system stronger, debt levels are also low. Moreover, before the crisis, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland and other countries export more, reducing the foreign currency debt, and implemented a more stringent fiscal policy, such as the response to the crisis , the implementation of fiscal stimulus provided some space, of course, a number of countries in Eastern Europe to tackle the crisis initiatives such as financial tax cuts, increased spending, not only the intensity is small, and often subject to rising government deficits, and thus the effect is not obvious.
It should also be noted that the transition countries take different anti-crisis measures and stimulus effect produced is different, right after the financial crisis impact on economic development is not the same in China since 2009, including the implementation of the 4 trillion yuan including investment and economic stimulus packages have been achieved, as by the international financial crisis, China's economy into a strong power, economic recovery trend has been basically formed, as Premier Wen Jiabao at 2010 Summer Davos Forum Post speech, pointed out: "The implementation of the package of program effectiveness, not only to maintain the current economic growth and social stability, and more importantly, maintain the good momentum of China's economic development and modernization process is not due to the emergence of large external shocks big twists and turns, its significance and far-reaching. " Thus, on the whole, in 2010 after the Chinese economy will gradually enter the expansion and rapid development in the coming period, as the global economy into a deep adjustment period, short-term expansion of external demand difficult to return to pre-crisis levels, and thus expand investment to boost domestic demand, improve consumer demand contributed to economic growth, and enhance the sustainability of economic growth, China's economic development is the basic orientation. This situation's influence on the world economy can not be underestimated, "When negative economic growth in major developed countries when the large developing countries such as China's rapid economic stabilization and to maintain a rapid growth in the world overcome the greatly enhanced the confidence of the international financial crisis, the world economy provides a strong growth momentum."  Therefore, as a leading international financial crisis, one of the world economic engine, China to expand domestic demand to stimulate and maintain high economic growth of the world economy has a special significance.
Another big countries with economies in transition situation in Russia and China are quite different. Overall, although the Russian anti-crisis measures and intensity of the stimulus package is not China great, but better than most countries in transition in Eastern Europe, according to European Commission forecasts, next two years, the Russian economy will grow, the unemployment rate will drop .2008 Russia's economic growth of 5.6%, down 7.9% in 2009 is expected in 2010 Russia's economic growth rate was 3.7% in 2011 to reach 4% . And Russia will develop innovative economy as get rid of the international financial crisis and improve the international competitiveness of the important measures for the development of innovative economy, Russia has increased the state guarantee funds of the State budget allocations .2010-2012 amendment would increase the total amount disbursed guarantee funds to 5,380 billion rubles, of which 2,670 billion rubles for the development of nanotechnology, defense industry, aircraft manufacturing and promoting the development of the automobile industry, 2,710 billion rubles for the government program to support innovative SMEs Russian Deputy Prime Minister兼财政部部长库德林表示,未来2—3年内俄罗斯小额信贷市场的容量估计达1 000—1 500亿卢布,主要用于支持小型企业.此外,根据俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫的指示,俄罗斯正在起草关于建立国际金融中心的计划.而且,为加快国际金融中心建设,俄罗斯政府决定在2010年6月1日前成立专门的领导小组,并成立由俄罗斯及境外金融机构专家代表组成的咨询委员会,以全力推进国际金融中心建设.
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