Based on farmers of rural public goods supply Empirical Analysis of Consumption

Abstract: stimulating domestic demand in rural areas is the main battlefield for the rural public goods supply and income of the farmers of these two main factors that affect farmers' consumption, this paper studies using cointegration analysis of specific supply of public goods in rural areas and farmers long-term stable relationship between consumer spending, while through the error correction model of rural public goods supply and farmers' incomes to farmers spending long-term effects and short-term effects, and make the appropriate comparison.

Keywords: rural public supplies cointegration error correction model effect


In the current financial crisis has not yet subsided in the context of the state has adopted a series of 'capital growth, expand domestic demand, adjust the structure, benefits the people's livelihood,' the policy measures. Insufficient supply of rural public goods problem is more severe in the largely rural public goods supply affect farmers' consumption structure and consumption scale. China is currently still a large agricultural country, based on a large population base of farmers, farmers 'income level is low this basic fact, the supply of public goods is still one of the most important factor affecting farmers' consumption. This paper mainly rural public goods supply and income of the farmers of these two factors affect farmers 'consumption as the research object, through empirical analysis, the comparison of rural public goods supply and farmers' income rural consumption of these two factors on the long-term effects and short-term effects, as develop appropriate policy measures to provide empirical evidence papers download.

Rural Public Product Supply on Peasant Consuming affect consistency analysis


(A) Data Selection and Description

Through the 'China Statistical Yearbook' Select the 1985-2008 fiscal expenditure per capita (x1), per capita consumption expenditure in cash (yc) and per capita net income of rural residents (x2) indicators. It should be noted: First, farmers consumer spending, consumer paper, rural per capita cash expenditure targets, mainly due to: farmers' consumption expenditure includes Consumption Expenditure and Cash Consumption Expenditure, total consumption expenditure in life, spending some more is self-sufficiency, the effect of stimulating domestic demand for such consumption is not, therefore, take this Cash Consumption Expenditure targets. Secondly, we use per capita net income of rural residents instead of farmers' income, mainly on account of the level of consumer spending and the farmers statistical indicators consistency and availability of data. Finally, with regard to the supply of public goods in rural areas are more difficult to collate the data, taking into account the previous two indicators statistical consistency, this article uses the per capita expenditure as indicators of rural public goods supply.

(Two) Variable description and analysis of trends

According to 1990-2008 per capita expenditure (x1), per capita consumption expenditure in cash (yc) and per capita net income of rural residents (x2) related indicators, Figures 1 and 2 to make the change trend.

As can be seen from Figure 1, since 1985, China's per capita consumption expenditure in cash in a rising trend overall, after 1999, but also to increase the acceleration. In contrast, the per capita expenditure is rising, although the overall trend, but the rise is small. From the point of view of both trends, per capita cash expenditure per capita consumption expenditure and a consistent trend, which to some extent, that has a consistent correlation between the two, affecting farmers in rural public goods spending. However, the rise from their point of view, the rise in per capita expenditure is less than the per capita rate of increase in consumer spending cash, which shows, on the one hand, China's rural public goods supply in the slow development of the state, rural public goods supply is insufficient. On the other hand, the factors affecting consumer spending is not just farmers of rural public goods supply, as well as other factors. Or because the rural public goods supply is indirectly affect farmers' spending.
According to Figure 2, the per capita net income of rural residents per capita consumption expenditure in cash and change the situation, the two have the same trend, which shows that the per capita net income of rural residents per capita consumption expenditure in cash and a consistent correlation between income of the farmers affected farmers consumption. Meanwhile, it can be seen from Figure 2, the per capita net income of rural residents than rural per capita consumption expenditure in cash, which shows that China's rural residents' income is not used exclusively for consumer spending. Therefore, the supply of public goods in rural areas farmers have an indirect impact on consumption and incomplete. The so-called incomplete refers to a unit of public goods is less than one unit driven by consumer spending. The so-called indirect means, rural public goods supply can affect the income of the farmers, farmers 'consumption habits and other factors affecting farmers' consumption.

Farmers of rural public goods supply consumption effect


(A) stationary test data

For time-series data to be stationary test, we use the most commonly used method of ADF test. In Eviews environment, the test results are shown in Table 1. Table 1 shows, these variables in the second order of 5% significance level is smooth.

(Two) Granger causality test

Be specific study interdependencies between variables, causality test must be carried out, and its main purpose is to know specifically interdependence of each variable in the position, that is, which variable is the cause and which variable is the fruit, once you know the cause and effect relationship, it is nature of factors can be analyzed. In this paper, Granger causality test, the results shown in Table 2.

As can be seen from Table 2, at the 5% level of significance because X1 is a YC, X2 is a YC reason, X1 is X2 causes. That farmers in rural public goods supply consumer spending caused changes in farmers 'income due to changes in consumer spending of farmers, rural public goods supply caused by changes in farmers' income. Supply of public goods in rural areas and farmers 'income is the reason for peasant consumption expenditure of rural public goods supply is the reason for the change farmers' income.

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(three) cointegration analysis

Cointegration analysis is to test whether a variable has a long-term stable relationship, from Table 2, the per capita expenditure (x1), per capita consumption expenditure in cash (yc) and per capita net income of rural residents (x2) the logarithm of the second-order difference is stationary , ie log (yc) ~ I (2), log (x1) ~ I (2), log (x2) ~ I (2). Since these variables are of the same order stationary, so you can continue to do cointegration analysis. Specific analysis is as follows:

First, cointegration regression:

log (yct) = 0.212.8log (x1t) +0.792269 log (x2t)

et = log (yct)-log (yct)

Secondly, a single test et integrity: non-equilibrium error term et single integration test shown in Table 3, Table 3 shows that the error term et disequilibrium at the 5% significance level is smooth.

Therefore, the variable log (yc), log (x1), log (x2) are cointegrated, their long-term stable relationship exists between, lay the foundation for the next analysis.

(Four) effects analysis

To be specific log (x1), log (x2) on the log (yc) of the situation as well as their long-term and short-term effect relationship, while the above cointegration analysis, this paper error correction model can be established as follows:

Eviews environment in the regression results are as follows:

△ log (yct) = 0.634554 △ log (x1t) -0.332041
(5.78934) (4.98754) DW = 1.8
[Log (yct-1)-1.366096-0.789609log (x1t-1) (1)
R2 = 0.937
△ log (yct) = 1.115537 △ log (x2t) -0.143370
(6.78912) (3.24971) DW = 1.8
[Log (yct-1) +0.439786-1.06355 log (x2t-1) (2)
R2 = 0.937
According to equation (1) indicates that, x1 yc impact on short-term elasticity (0.634554) is less than x1 yc impact on the long-term elasticity (0.789609), therefore, the supply of rural public goods consumption impacts on farmers is less than its long-term effects of short-term effects.

Equation (2) shows that x2 yc impact on short-term elasticity (1.115537) is greater than x2 yc impact on the long-term elasticity (1.06355). This shows that the income of the farmers for farmers affected consumer spending is greater than the long-term effects of short-term effects. Therefore, the income of the farmers can immediately drive consumption, while the long-term supply of public goods consumption effect greater than its short-term effects.

For the comparison of rural public goods supply to farmers and farmers' income effect of consumer spending. As per capita expenditure (x1), per capita consumption expenditure in cash (yc) and per capita net income of rural residents (x2) with cointegration, they have long-term stable relationship, so you can draw the following regression equation:
log (yct) = 0.191449log (x1t) +0.807953 log (x2t) +
(3.704564) (4.12146) (4.0317) DW = 1.79

0.542815AR (1) (3)

R2 = 0.9937
By the equation (3), x1 and x2 in common to the case of yc, x1 yc impact on flexibility (0.191449) than x2 yc impact on flexibility (0.807953). This suggests that in the long run, considering the supply of public goods and the mutual influence farmers' income and rural public goods supply effects on farmers spending less than their income for farmers spending effect. This conclusion seems inconsistent with reality, however, if taking into account the income of the farmers and the rural public goods supply to understand the relationship between the reason. The above analysis, the supply of public goods is the reason for the income of farmers, farmers' income increased to some extent dependent on the supply of public goods in rural areas.
As can be seen from Figure 3: Figure 3 (a) of rural public goods supply can be directly led farmers to consumer spending, can also affect the income of the farmers indirectly led farmers to consumer spending. Figure 3 (b) show that the income of the farmers directly led farmers to consumer spending. The reason why the long term supply of public goods in rural areas for farmers spending their income is less than the effect of consumer spending effect on farmers, the fundamental reason is because the supply of public goods in rural areas affected farmers' income, thus further affecting farmers consumer spending. On the surface, the factors affecting consumer spending farmers from the rural public goods supply and farmers' income, in fact, consumer spending from farmers through rural public goods supply revenue. Therefore, the farmers income effect of consumer spending from other income of farmers and rural public goods supply revenue, while rural consumption expenditure of rural public goods supply effect only from the rural public goods supply. So the peasant farmers' income effect is greater than the long-term consumption expenditure of rural public goods supply to farmers spending long-term effects.

However, specific to the farmers' income to farmers spending their income is less than short-term effects on farmers spending long-term effects, the reason is irrational rural consumption, in line with the idea of ​​Scott, Scott considered the economic behavior of farmers to pursue the 'livelihood first 'and' safety first 'principle, rather than rational economic man the principle of maximizing revenue. The short-term effects of public goods in rural areas is greater than its long-term effect, which is due to the rural public goods supply led farmers to spot consumer spending, Lin believes that farmers in the external conditions, limitations, will be made according to the traditional practice of consumer behavior, but changes in the external conditions circumstances, will change their behavior. Therefore, changes in the supply of public goods in rural areas can change farmers' consumption expenditure.

In summary, the supply of public goods in rural areas can not only immediate change consumption habits of farmers produce immediate effects, but also can affect the income of the farmers, thereby affecting farmers' consumption expenditure, resulting in long-term effects. In accordance with consumer spending habits, income is the change in consumption habits most convenient and flexible factor, but this habit change is based on the supply of public goods in rural areas over the external conditions. Therefore, the supply of public goods in rural areas affected farmers in consumer spending, not only has a direct effect and may play an indirect 'bridge' role.

References:

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3 Li Yanling rural public goods supply to farmers of the consumer price index [J]. Sichuan University, 2005.5
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5 Qu Xiaobo, etc. Income Distribution on Consumption Demand underdeveloped areas affected farmers Empirical Analysis [J]. Commercial Research, 2007.2
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