Uncertainty about economic development incentives and

[Abstract] Based on the examination of the psychological needs and motivations, from structured and unstructured uncertainty uncertainty analysis of the market conditions, the uncertainty of the economic actors produce stimulating principles, and explains its economic Development.
[Keywords:] needs motivation structured uncertainty of economic development.

1is to know what we don "t know the old adage phrase reflects not only the production of new knowledge of the uncertainty, but the person for the unknown world of infinite pursuit.
It is this nature of the achievements of the continuous progress of mankind for centuries. Until today's highly developed market economy, uncertainty remains on the progress of the whole society plays an important role in trying to explore the principles which will further the rational use to promote economic development of great significance.
One pair needs and motivations of inspection.

Mankind has always been the spirit of exploration and control desires, our ancestors in this uncertain world constantly discover and transform the environment, but also transform themselves in modern society, this uncertain economic environment remains the same This seems to be human nature.
Uncertainty is generally considered an object should avoid more closely linked with the risk and have a negative psychological effect. Indeed, the decision on the basic needs of security people more dependent on the familiar things, controllable environmental factors provides a stable state of mind, thus ensuring the limited space to move freely in accordance with their wishes, and also releases more attention to the small new things to explore and pursue in. And this is not so much to explore and pursue seeking safety results, as it is the reason, people always tend to endlessly expand their awareness and control, but the process itself is also intertwined with people's desire for freedom of movement. than a century ago that humans can influence and control of the area, and thus the field of freedom of movement has been greatly expanded.
It can be seen that human progress is not accidental. Always meet the basic security needs, has generated a higher level of demand for freedom of movement, and this part of the action itself is to continue to expand awareness and control field, This in turn reinforces the sense of security, while in the process of human self-realization also received satisfaction, so the cycle can be said, in a completely deterministic world, the result of any act caused was so determined that people will lose all momentum.
Similarly, in the market environment, people avoid the uncertainty but also the pursuit of uncertainty, and its full of fantasy and hope this motivation will become a market economy under the conditions of the main micro behavior of important factors.
Two uncertainties connotations.

When Keynes noted that the uncertainty of his time in the functioning of capitalism played a key role, he tried to distinguish between uncertainty and risk of these two concepts. Keynes, uncertainty is a state in which kind of state.
Individual actors found it impossible to choose a clear expected results give a reasonable probability (Keynes, 1937. Comparison, the risk can be calculated, therefore, in probability theory can match the range, the risk is not The sea of ​​uncertainty can be controlled islands.
If the risk is the uncertainty in the likelihood of a negative event, then the corresponding, there is the possibility of a certain event, that derive revenue possible, but we can say that it is this part of the uncertainty in the market for the main micro The main source of motivation, but this distinction seems to be difficult, in complex situations in which people are often difficult to determine the direction of development of the situation, or even to determine the positive or the general negative trend, which mixed a variety of unpredictable events uncertainty is clearly the greatest hazard lies, it will lose momentum and even people's behavior completely at a standstill, so regardless of the final result is positive or negative, in the uncertainty occurs when the motives of human behavior is suppressed.
Another situation of uncertainty, are known to occur in the event, but can not determine the extent of its occurrence or assign a definite probability, which is equivalent to the uncertainty in defining a framework, or call within the corresponding rules, so that the parties may be required to deal with the situation more clearly. precisely this uncertainty under specific conditions are much more likely a positive motivation, that the uncertainty of the market environment, people produce incentive.
Thus, the former as unstructured uncertainty, and the latter is called structured uncertainty this classification seems appropriate.

Three actors on the market uncertainty arising from incentive effects analysis.

1. Structured uncertainty analysis.


Structured Uncertainty important feature is that it will embed the uncertainty of the specific rules or framework, so that the behavior and results with a specific link between, although the probability of their occurrence and intensity unknown. This uncertainty is still under behavioral outcomes orientation nondeterministic, can not for a variety of favorable and unfavorable situation the probability distribution of the corresponding clear before, that the perpetrator will suffer losses and the gains may be considerable, the parties will not to take action, or no further action incentives.
However, if further defined the structural uncertainty risks that may arise, the situation will change, as the definition of risk prior to the probability can match the range of risk can be calculated, while this may be sufficient to quantify indicates that the perpetrator of the risk has a rich source of information and be able to conduct in-depth understanding of them, so that the uncertainty in the information contained in the positive and negative possibilities for information on the possibility of transition from the symmetric asymmetric, information itself provides a safe utility to meet the security needs of people must act to further inspire their motivation to explore the unknown gains, namely with respect to the possibility of loss of known space, the gains could be large enough space more It is this positive unexpected gains inspired actors infinite incentive to increase its revenue actively explore different possibilities.
Incentive principle can occur simply attributed to the risk in the pursuit of controllable interests unknowable Although this analysis is still no explanation beyond the scope of rational man assumptions, but is already implicit in some of the non-rational factors, if not realistic hope triggered motivation. Links to free download http://eng.hi138.com

2. unstructured uncertainty analysis.


As previously mentioned, a mixture of unstructured uncertainty of possible events in different directions, the parties will not be due to loss of judgment to take further action, because behavior and profitability are completely lost contact with human behavior which will motives completely suppressed. Such uncertainty is the great obstacle to a market economy, but also the behavior of people who need to avoid the object, its people have a negative psychological effect, but also because of the complexity of the individual taken in circumvention measures to increase the entire market transaction costs, reducing the efficiency of operation of the market.
Three uncertainty on market efficiency and economic development.

1 uncertainty on market efficiency.

Discussion of uncertainty leads naturally as part of the market economy that should play a role, and never deterministic perspective, how to build a rational and efficient markets. No uncertainty in the market can not be called market The uncertainty of the market can not be called a healthy market. market through the price mechanism in the rational allocation of resources, and also provides an incentive main micro possible, but the problem is how to define an efficient market should have no certainty, and thus as a measure of market efficiency standards.
Solution to the problem depends on the operation of the system in the market should play the role of the system should be no doubt that the market economy will limit the range of uncertainty in the structured uncertainty within the scope of a major power, that does not act as a structural certainty in the framework and rules of the market economy system should effectively prevent opportunistic unstructured caused uncertainty a mature market should rely more on the sound system brings a stable psychological expectations, established between the behavior and performance stable link, so that individuals with higher micro-economic initiative engaged in economic activities, thereby enhancing the vitality of the market, to speed up the flow of factors of production, and strengthen effective allocation of resources.
From this perspective, legalization for the effective functioning of the market economy has an extremely important role, it will default that may occur on the market or the cost of limiting moral hazard in a controlled or at least knowable range, so that the perpetrator of the source active participants in other markets have security risks psychological bottom line, and thus actively engaged in more efficient production activities.
Another noteworthy aspect is that efficient market system should not restrict the freedom of rational economic behavior, institutional constraints on the one hand lead to undesirable behavior, while the risk, to prevent interference system on rational behavior, only market activity Participants give full play to their initiative, in order to improve the market in resource allocation efficiency.
(2) uncertainty and economic development.

First, uncertainty promotion and implementation of human capital accumulation. Humans are constantly on the environment in the process of trying to explore and learn, so as to continuously develop and progress, which is also a human capital accumulation process, the production of modern economy activity, human capital, economic growth has become an important factor can not be ignored, so human capital not only affects the efficient use of non-human capital, but also affect the rate of economic growth, but also determines the market innovation activities and quality of economic growth, ultimately have a significant impact on economic development.
Through the introduction of non-human capital can be increased rapidly, while the growth of human capital is a relatively slow process, in order to accelerate the accumulation of human capital, investment in education is of course essential, however, investment in education does not guarantee effective into practical productive forces, an important reason for the lack of human capital accumulation in endogenous momentum, and its power is rooted in the market, it is the uncertainty of the market has stimulated exploration and learning needs, this need for educational investment provided the correct orientation, while clear goals and a strong motivation will also improve the efficiency of human capital accumulation from this sense, investment in education should be directly or indirectly in some way associated with the market in order to achieve rapid human capital effective accumulation of human capital, but also to make a smooth return to the market and realize its value. Out of touch with the market demand, investment in education not only improves the possibility of structural unemployment, also contributed to the workers in the market for secondary investments, resulting in a great waste of resources.
This shows that the realization of human capital lies in learning to apply the conversion efficiency, regardless of learning or application, should have a reasonable purpose and motivation, resulting in uncertainty in the market is the source of such motives.
Secondly, uncertainty increases the possibility of innovation. Facts have proved that the planning system in the known correct path of development on economic growth is more efficient, but this development is to rely more on existing experience of learning and imitation, the realization of the extensive mode of economic growth, when economic development to a certain extent, this economic growth will inevitably encounter a bottleneck, one does not rely on innovation can not break through the bottleneck, which is what our country is currently facing major challenges - the transformation of economic development mode, the key lies in innovation.
Innovation is the soul of a nation's progress is an inexhaustible motive force for national prosperity, which is a country on innovation brilliant summation of the importance of economic development. At the same time, innovation is also a highly complex intellectual activity on the environment and individuals have raised more stringent requirements and innovation activities seems to be more dependent on the large number of individuals in different directions to explore and try to improve the probability of success possible, market-oriented just under uncertainty provides this incentives, so a lot of innovation activities in a typical market environment complete, which is difficult to rely on national power to achieve, because there is no established model of success and experience.
This is based on the endogenous innovation activities, incentives for innovation should be more oriented to establish a good environment for innovation and expansion, while the first is through the uncertainty of the market for innovative activities effective incentive, but not reasonable deterministic excitation in turn depends on the corresponding rules and norms on the one hand, they can effectively control the market risk, on the other hand, can improve market flexibility, reasonable to reduce the restrictions on individual economic behavior, so that it is willing and able to engage in more aggressive exploration and innovation activities, and effectively improve the level of innovation in society as a whole.
Four conclusion.

Uncertainties affecting the entire economy through market development, and in order to obtain a valid uncertainty incentive system in which they play an important role in how the institutional arrangements structured to produce reasonable uncertainty will be worth many Scholars further study and discussion.
References.

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