Papers Category:Culture Papers
- Population Problem Papers
Post Time:2011-8-10 11:32:00
Abstract: According to an aging population and labor supply characteristics, analysis of the development of Guangdong and the distribution of population aging characteristics of the future aging of the labor supply trends and analysis of the impact, and propose solutions to labor supply issues.
Keywords: aging, labor, supply
Population aging refers to people aged over 60 increased the proportion of the total population, 14 years old and below, the proportion of the total population is gradually shrinking phenomenon. Labor supply is a consequence of the aging workforce, the entire labor force in increasing the proportion of high-and low-age population age population declined. reflects the aging of the population overall socio-economic development and improved living standards, health conditions did improve, declining birth rate and the average life expectancy in the process.
First, the Guangdong population aging and development characteristics of labor supply According to the 2005 population sample, the Guangdong population aged 65 and over 656.
8 million, compared to 2000 increased 24.8% according to the aging population standards after 2000, Guangdong has gradually entered the population aging society, the process slower than the other provinces mainly the rapid social and economic development of Guangdong, attracting a large number of population migration from other provinces, especially the introduction of a young working-age population and delay the aging process. Guangdong survey, the elderly, development, distribution is:
1. The elderly population grew faster than total population growth, and has shown, the aging trend is usually 65-80 years of age and older people over account for the proportion of the population age structure to reflect the status of the elderly population. "15" period, Guangdong elderly population is increased by 147.57 million, an increase of 27.6%, higher than the growth rate of the elderly population of the province's total population growth rate, 2000-2005, younger age group (60-69 years of age the proportion of the total elderly population decreased by 3.9 percentage points, in the age group (70-79 years of age and old age group (over age 80 were up 2.68,1.27 percentage points. showing a structure in the elderly population, aging population, the proportion of rapidly aging. (2) the number of labor force growth, population aging occurs .
15-65 years old working population size from 2000 to 4933 people, 2030 is expected to reach 6 200 million people, the proportion of the population has reached about 70% from the number of and the proportion of point of view, in Guangdong Province is relatively abundant supply of labor, but labor in changing the internal structure of 0-14-year-olds increased from 27.15% in 2000 down to about 15% in 2030, the number from 2000 to 2033 million in 2030 down to about 15 million, showed a clear decreasing trend. Proportion of the population aged 65 and number of significantly increased from 5.23 million in 2000 rising to 20 million in 2004 or so, the proportion of from about 7% to 20% about its rise is far greater than the supply of labor to increase the magnitude and decreasing children speed of demographic aging will inevitably form the aging population. 3 aging of the population below the eastern Pearl River Delta, west, north .
2000, Guangdong Province, the elderly population, elderly population in the Pearl River Delta region accounted for 32.8% of the total, 27.9 percent in western Guangdong, northern Guangdong (19.5%), eastern region accounted for 18.5%. In addition to Jiangmen, the Pearl River Delta and Guangzhou, the elderly population aged 60 and over are less than 10% of the elderly population-based standards, and northern Guangdong, western 60 population over the age of over 10% of the elderly population-based standards; eastern standard has reached old age population from the four regions as a whole, the Pearl River Delta region over 60 years of age and older the proportion of the total population is only 6. 4%, 9.4% for the eastern, northern Guangdong region of 12.2%, western region of 10.96%. In other words, northern Guangdong, western Guangdong Province has entered the ranks of the old society, "not old before getting rich "in serious condition, while Guangdong is about to enter an aged society, compared to the Pearl River Delta region from the old society is still some distance.
Second, the aging population and labor supply trends forecast
Guangdong Province, to reveal the future trends of population aging, the aging population and labor force projections, according to the different fertility levels and patterns of death model assumes, migration model assumes that the population flow remains the same assumptions and gender at birth, reference program: mortality assumptions in the fertility assumption + + + floating population migration hypothesis assumption of this program in Guangdong Province, 2000-2040 the number of the elderly population size and the proportion of analysis, that future trends in population aging, Guangdong Province, showed the following characteristics.
The next 40 years, Guangdong's total population is still growing, but the proportion of elderly population increasing proportion of the total population, the absolute number of labor supply from the future to see, a serious imbalance in the proportion of the population structure, labor force participation rate decreased for both population and economic production great challenge. Elderly population scale, the proportion of underweight children, suggesting a shortage of supply of labor resources in the future.
"Eleventh Five-Year" period, household population aged 65 and Guangdong elderly population over 634 million people in 2010 to 2020, the elderly population will further accelerate the expansion of the average annual increase of 260,000 .2020 in elderly population of 900 million people, 20 50-70 years of the century the population of baby boomers will begin to enter old age, the number of elderly population in 2020 was the fastest period of growth, population aging is inevitable. the number of children has dropped, if the birth rate and fertility policy unchanged, juvenile proportion of children continued to decline, the total population will inevitably lead to long-term reduction in labor supply shortage, seriously affecting the social and economic sustainability. From a regional perspective, the Pearl River Delta slow aging, mild, and the eastern, western, northern Guangdong aging fast and severe.
Affected by the impact of migration and floating population, emigration and out of the northern part of Guangdong population, Whether it is the resident population or household the highest degree of aging of the population in 2005, up 8.5% to 8.6% in 2010 to more than 9% in 2020 to more than 11%. Pearl River Delta, the aging of the resident population of the lowest level in 2005 was 5.4%, 5.7% in 2010, up 8.8% in 2020, significantly lower than the level of household population aging, the aging of eastern and western Guangdong, the extent and speed of between the PRD and the changes between the northern part of Guangdong, but no matter which region, after the 2030s are aging into the depth of the state, eastern, western extent of aging in 2040 will reach 15% to 20% northern part of Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta up to 20%. Old age dependency ratio increased, the family and the burden of social care of elderly people.
A measure of social burden on the elderly population, elderly dependency ratio used to measure this indicator reflects the dependency between the elderly and young people, and being dependent on the relationship between the extent and number of . 1 the total elderly population of working age population growth is the total dependency burden of the main factors.
Demographic projections and population dependency ratio shows: 15 to 65 years of labor-age population has been increasing quantity terms, fairly abundant labor supply , Guangdong's economic development to provide adequate labor supply, with the rapid decline in labor supply, also will reduce its labor force from the working-age population proportion of the total population in 2020 to 71.72% of the total working population, its ratio reached a peak, then begin to decline, to about 60% in 2040, and more decreasing trend, the low-age population is extremely detrimental to social development. Links to free download http://eng.hi138.com
(2) an aging population, the rural elderly population increased elderly dependency burden of society even more heavy.
Old age dependency will be the difficult problem of elderly dependents. Senior citizens of their weak self-care, life care, day care, health and disease, the need for better social and community professional services in rural areas and the total elderly population higher than the proportion of urban, rural and urban elderly than the elderly is neither retirement, but most of the social old-age security is not in network coverage, the dependent elderly in rural areas can rely more on children, which adds to the rural labor population dependency burden .2005 rural and urban elderly dependency rates were 43.4%, 29.3%, with the accelerated process of urbanization, more and more people flow to towns and cities, rural old age dependency ratio may rise again. Age structure of the aging workforce for the future labor supply challenges.
With the development of an aging population, labor force structure, the proportion of older elderly people will rise, while the proportion of young workers will decline, the unreasonable structure of the labor force , old age labor supply than demand, and shortage of young workers in the industrial structure adjustment, the traditional industries and technologies have been eliminated, the introduction of new techniques and technology, the demand for labor is mainly young labor force, especially in a the industrial structure of rapid social transition, this performance is even more obvious, there are technical educated young labor demand, without culture, technology will be backward surplus of older workers facing unemployment, re-employment is also very difficult, the future labor supply is a challenge.
Third, labor supply and the challenges of population aging and thinking 1 adjustment of fertility policy, gradually slowing population age structure imbalance.
In a period of time to implement changes in the family planning policy to achieve population growth, but also by adjusting the appropriate policies to alleviate the fertility problem of an aging population, Guangdong Province, the population structure is still enter aging on the road, take some time to fully enter the aging stage. Through scientific inference, low birth peak time in the appropriate adjustments to these policies, to fill vacancies in the labor force after aging In addition, the number of children less and less population will inevitably impact on future labor supply, while resulting in an aging population , pension increasingly heavier burden. To solve these problems, can also develop policies to encourage the appropriate objects have more fertility, eugenics, and gradually improve the population structure, slow the aging of the population pressure.
(2) seize the opportunities the demographic dividend, an appropriate introduction of foreign workers to fill labor shortages, an aging population share of pressure generally is not conducive to economic growth, demographic factors as the population balance in the economy, referred to as population balance; demographic factors conducive to economic growth dividends as population on the economy, referred to as the demographic dividend due to large number of young migrants poured into and to make a direct beneficiary of the demographic dividend, "old before getting rich" than the rest of the country's state of light, its demographic dividend "golden period" earlier than the arrival of the country, continuing a longer time than the country. Population age structure, low-burden "golden" period, benefit from the demographic dividend phase Guangdong still be appropriate to introduce non-native population, while the foreign population, increasing demands for quality, reasonable and orderly introduction of the necessary labor resources. Of human resources, encourage the inflow of foreign talent shortage of qualified personnel, especially the introduction of a reasonable structure to optimize the introduction of talents.
3. Gradually adjust the industrial structure, labor force structure to adapt to changes in Guangdong Province is lower than the national average of aging, the aging time in the eve of the economic and social development, to attract a large number of excellent resources of the labor force, and the optimal allocation of various industries and region, the Pearl River Delta region to prevent the population is concentrated, especially based on optimizing the industrial structure, adjust industrial layout and reduce the demand for labor in Guangdong's future labor supply situation and decided to not take the line of labor-intensive development path, we must accelerate economic restructuring, development funds technology-intensive line of advanced manufacturing and modern knowledge-intensive industries such as financial services, reducing the demand for labor the same time, accelerate the training of skills of the workforce, upgrade the industrial structure to adapt to the needs of full labor potential.
4. Improve the social security policies to meet the arrival of the aging peak. With the arrival of an aging population, increasing the proportion of elderly population, fewer and fewer people working, more and more dependent elderly population, a simple old-age security, health care unbearable peak of population aging heavy pressure must be before the advent of an aging, as soon as possible to improve the social security system and the system: to gradually establish and improve the response to the aging of old age security system, to establish a minimum living standard security system as the core of the comprehensive social security system establish a hierarchical classification based rural social pension insurance system to establish and expand coverage of social insurance, social insurance to improve the overall level, the establishment of urban and rural social security system.
Links to free download http://eng.hi138.com