Analysis: Traffic bonus disappears, promotion of small and medium APP take?

(News free download) the amount of dividends disappear Truth

Traffic dividend disappear simply that the slowdown in the mobile Internet, mobile phone users grew substantially to the head, the rest of the four-wire and rural users have a cell phone, but it does not have any traffic, because they just answer the phone, micro letter, a lot of people even the change will not take now, little attention this commercial value; attention subscriber growth is basically coming to an end, the end of 2015 the per capita mobile phone long 2.3 hours surfing the web, after all, the phone does not work like a computer, had to eat and sleep, this has been a long time occupy most of the user's leisure time, space expansion can be said to be small.


Overall, the traffic is still growing, but the rate is slowing. But the competition has accelerated growth, so more and more scarce traffic, but also more expensive.

Into 2016, the micro-channel public number of open rates decline, the fans get difficult. The reason is that the original user has enough public concern number, and number of new public more and more difficult to divert the user's attention is inevitable; With public concern growing number of users, the user information overload inevitably opens only a few like the public numbers, or open only the article title No. attractive public, but the public at large number of systems, traffic is growing, but slowing, and competition accelerates, after all users when staying micro message length is still growing, as of July 2016, Analysys data think tank showed micro-letter day live up to 680 million, up to 90 minutes per day travel over more than half of users daily residence phone long.

Big brands are the market determine the price of traffic

Enter 2016, the flow becomes more expensive:

· Traffic dividend disappear

· More and more new APP

· Media Party continued price increases

Tradition brand accelerate contacts, develop APP

Big strong brand to buy the amount of

At the same time, the flow rate conversion is getting worse:

· User attention fragmentation, decline in trust in the channel

· Identification of the ads is high, more and more disgusted

· Lack of information from the early users, passive acceptance, into information overload, active production

It can be said that in recent years to promote the APP market has undergone tremendous changes, users now get a few cents from the early hundreds, traffic prices become prohibitive.


We all know that 3 per thousand is a key number of Internet traffic, access to a user, it takes about 333 clicks, such as clicking priced at $ 1, you get a user cost of 333 yuan. Thousandths is not a universal number, but it reflects a basic truth, pure buy traffic, low cost is not where to go, from click to registration, from registration to buy, no matter how low the threshold of products, Gets a user, you need to put in 100 to 300 yuan or more.

With the formation of the traditional brand of OCS acceleration, Internet giants, they are deciding market prices flow.

Because of the Internet and traditional brands brand we have gained reputation and visibility, with a small ratio of APP higher conversion rate, the CAC lower; while a more mature business liquidity, its ARPU higher value.

We know that the level of CAC and ARPU values are relative, that is, how high or low in the peer level. Such as Taobao get a cost to the user is 300, 400 Jingdong, then Taobao CAC lower. For large flow competition between brands, in addition to through branding, self outside the entrance, but also to ensure the safety of traffic flow through the controlling APP, such as Ali acquisition UC, excellent soil, holding microblogging. But traffic compete for the big brands and small brands is entirely rely on the market to complete the auction, such as when an apparel electricity supplier and the only product competition, traffic will tilt toward the only product.

In the flow of information, for example, if the CPC is $ 1, the conversion rate per thousand, CAC 500. The big brands at a fraction conversion rate is assumed to be 2.5 per thousand, the big brands CPC affordable price $ 1.25. This time it will flow like a big brand tilt.

On the other hand, the same high-paying customers, small electricity supplier ARPU value may be $ 500, while the only product will probably be $ 1000, big brand stronger cash flow, but also makes the big brands have a stronger flow purchasing power.

In fact, both the long tail of CPC CPM resources or quality of resources, high conversion brands and mature flow liquidity, have made big brands are deciding the market price of traffic. When big brands CAC = ARPU value, the flow rate prices reached a critical point; for small and medium-APP, the price has already exceeded its flow to promote the critical point.

When the flow of dividends disappear, traditional brand OCS accelerated the formation of the Internet oligarchs, big brands dominated the market price of traffic flow when they pulled a price high when, for all SMEs, simply buy traffic to promote their age It has been in the past.

Traffic can only bring exposure, conversion is king

Early do APP promotion, application time starter can bring thousands of active, do ASO effect is excellent. With the gradual application store commercial, pay-per download price of more expensive, from a few cents to a few, and the registration and retention rate is very low. The reason is simple, user phone already under full variety of APP, as is now the number of micro-channel public open rate is very low, as a serious overload.

Traffic can only bring exposure, conversion is king. Now that the price of more expensive traffic, conversion is getting worse for small and medium-APP, the need to find cheaper traffic, conversion rates and better play.

Fundamentally, if not a high conversion, one to promote the flow of play is not suitable for small and medium-APP, only with the help of mobile Internet share, traffic growth to achieve one to many, at conversion is not high, CAC also low in ARPU. Or increase the beneficial conversion play, resulting in higher prices flow situation, it can be achieved CAC lower than ARPU.

By micro-letter

Since the user's attention on the phone half the micro-channel, then the micro-channel connection is the best position

· Micro-channel public number: FOLLOW the user to public numbers, subtle

· Circle of friends: fans will import personal micro signal, with the arrival of high circle of friends and a high conversion

· Micro-channel group: the relationship between precipitation, by the two-dimensional code to achieve fission circle of friends to share

· Micro-channel large: to find high-quality IP, creative play activities

· Push H5: Easy to use half the show do vote, collect sales leads; or development H5 Games

By promotion

Big brands can push hard, small APP can only strengthen sales promotion, promoting the conversion

· Big Wheel: Download Register, invite your friends to share my circle of friends, all get a lucky draw

· Other games are played: a red envelope, experience voucher, kind prizes, rebates, discounts

By influence

Everyone is media, use of KOL and seed users

Sponsorship KOL: KOL honorable sponsor packs, such as 100,000 taxi voucher to get word of mouth

· Partner: to honor the user, allowing users to push spontaneously

Big IP: the Internet and a second-tier companies, which help to achieve a KPI, thereby occasion

· Seminar: Organization meeting industry, enhance the credibility of

· Endorsement: XX Investment

As many people say, only not as developed APP micro-channel public numbers, like micro-channel has become the best communication channels, because the user's attention, mainly in micro letter. And social relations, no doubt in the conversion rate further, plus micro-channel payment convenient, so do the micro-channel to promote small and medium-APP should be the most important part. The other, in the desalination simple advertising, to strengthen the experience and event marketing, media and PR, maximize occasion KOL and seed users.

I believe that in the next few years, the majority of small and medium-APP, the social channels will be the best promotion positions. After the disappearance of the traffic bonus for small and medium enterprises can not afford the expensive traffic, traffic should give up their thinking, the beachhead from the traditional SEM, SEO, DSP, ASO and other social platforms up to the establishment of distribution from the content creation, traffic fans precipitation, the entire system of social marketing campaign management, data analysis, so as to gradually get rid of the predicament traffic.

More fundamentally speaking, the product is the source of traffic growth. Only in constantly optimize the product design, user gets optimal conversion paths simultaneously, good customer value management, user activity and reputation grow, in order to gradually get rid of after the re-purchase churn flow, and the inability to form a self-growing weak successor. (Source: Internet some of the things Wen / Liu Yu Min compile: China Electronic Commerce Research Center)

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