[Abstract] April 16, 2010, in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures contracts traded in China Financial Futures Exchange, to the end of 2010, stock index futures to run more than six months time, the reality is basically stable, therefore, should take the introduction of stock index futures Dongfeng, restore 'dust' fifteen years of the bond futures market. This brief review of the bond futures market to suspend the process, explain the restoration of our bond futures market still has the qualifications to study the bond futures market recovery problems, and further bond futures market recovery countermeasures and suggestions.
[Keywords] recovery, bond futures; management
A suspension of the bond futures market from 1981 to 1992, ten years, China's treasury bonds markets are assessed to rely on rigid, flat subscription administrative means to operate, in this context, the secondary market also showed a downturn trend .
December 28, 1992, Shanghai Stock Exchange, drawing on the experience of the United States, the first self-service securities firms to launch a bond futures, has launched a total of 12 varieties of futures contracts after 10 months of the trial run , in 1993, lO 25, the business officially open to the public. So far, China's government bond futures market, basically the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange also started a debt buy-back operations, so they formed a spot bond market, futures, repo operations, 'Troika', the results unprecedented, form an active subscription market, secondary market, spot up, repo business Gouxiaoliangwang 'win-win' situation.
However, did not last long. February 23, 1995 afternoon, the Shanghai Stock Exchange had shocked the nation, '327 incident.' In China's financial markets caused an uproar, resulting in the 'international securities companies' collapse. For a time,' 327 incident 'almost synonymous with bond futures the same year, May 17, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (China Securities Regulatory Commission) approval of a piece of paper <<bond futures on the pilot's emergency suspension notice>> issued, which would 'pause' Treasury futures market.
Second, the need to restore the bond futures market
(A) to restore the bond futures market, to win the trust accordance with common sense, since it is 'suspended', and the total re-opening date, but a long time. <<Shuowenjiezi>> says: 'The temporary person, and soon also. 'and then perform' pause who is also suspended. 'Because of this, the author of' pause 'at the beginning, on the <<Securities Market Weekly,' 1995, No. 9 on an appeal to restore the bond futures market. pm Today, is the author had never imagined, 'pause' after 15 years, bond futures are still in the 'pause' being, for the majority of investors, really feel then, so I once again appeal: by 'futures' of the wind to restore the bond futures market, but to win the trust of the people work. (B) to restore the bond futures market, to enhance liquidity bonds, interest rate risk effectively resolved.
Spot trading in the futures market is the long-term extension and development. Treasury stock market's healthy development is essential to the success of bond futures market conditions, and recovery bond futures market also increased the liquidity of bond spot market and now our national debt and the size of the spot market very different 15 years ago, is fully equipped to restore the basic conditions for bond futures market, national debt to GDP, managed accounts about 20%, introduction of some Western countries has reached when the ratio of bond futures (Korea: 14.4%, Germany, Brazil and other countries about 20%).
Since December 1993, the State Council decision on the financial system, 'market-based interest rates steadily' since the degree of China's current interest rate market is already very high. Currently, the interest rate risk has become a business, residential, institutional investors, financial market risks can not be avoided One of the banking, securities, insurance, funds and other financial institutions, the risk is self-evident the international experience shows, the bond interest rate futures is the most effective hedging instruments, interest rate controls in many Western countries has not been fully put in Before opening, had established a bond futures market the United States, Japan and other developed countries, so all the United States in March 1986 to achieve the interest rate market, but before, it had launched a two-year, 5 years, 10 years of short-term Treasury futures contracts and long-term 30-year bond futures contract in Japan in October 1994 to achieve the interest rate market, but Japan existed in October 1985 on the creation of a long-term Treasury bond futures market for the object with the United States, Japan compared to China's bond futures market has now restored to the point where conditions are ripe.
(C) to strengthen risk management, China has a relatively sound legal, regulatory basis since the year 1999, China promulgated the 'a regulation, four management practices' to build the futures market, regulate the development of regulatory frameworks: June 1999 the State Council issued <<Interim Regulations on Administration of Futures Trading>>: In January 2002, China Securities Regulatory Commission revised <<futures brokerage company's senior management qualifications management approach 'and <<futures practitioners Regulations>>; May the same year China Securities Regulatory Commission promulgated the revised 'futures exchange management approach' and <<futures brokerage firm management approach>>, China's futures market, the initial formation of a unified legal system, its development into a legal and standardized track of healthy development , rectifying Futures Exchange, the original 14 futures exchanges around the country re-adjusted to the Dalian Commodity Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, 3, in addition, set up the China Financial Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as in the gold), who gets to solve the financial futures (Futures or Stock Exchange) .2010 question on January 8, China Securities Regulatory Commission said in the announcement: the establishment of gold in more than three years, has been completed the CSI 300 index futures contract design, rule making and trading of stock index futures linked to the technical system construction, and the large number of investor education. Currently, the Commission will coordinate the pre-market stock index futures ready work, including the release of appropriate institutional investors in stock index futures, clear access policies of financial institutions work in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures contracts from April 16, 2010 traded to the end of the year, stock index futures running more than six months, the actual situation basically stable from above is easy to see, to restore the bond futures market, China has a relatively sound legal, regulatory and broad popular base.
(D) to restore the bond futures market, and enhance financial derivatives to protect the interests of small investors is well known that gold in its inception, the theory is always in the 'idle' state, and now finally after a long stock index futures 'shining debut. 'However, a stock index futures alone financial derivatives, is absolutely insufficient to support the running costs of gold in this way, internationally recognized minimum risk, maximum volume and very mature bond futures should have seized the opportunity and so only help develop the market, but also helps to reduce the operating costs of gold, therefore, to restore civilian population of the bond futures market, not only for institutional investors to increase investment in new varieties, but also conducive to small and medium investors to participate, create a more equitable market environment.
Third, the bond futures market recovery problems (a) management system is incomplete, the artificial division of a market, market participants were divided. For now, our national debt in circulation market in accordance with the type of investors can be divided into three markets: the stock exchange (also sub-Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges) bond market, the inter-bank bond market and bond OTC market we all know, the bond market, investors have a circulation of their different nature of the liabilities and asset management purposes, which resulted in further differences in the demand for government bonds, but also precisely because of this difference, only the demand for bond trading, only With the resulting bond trading motives and behavior, but the current design of China's bond market circulation precisely denied the existence of such differences, the reality is: commercial banks, stock exchanges can not enter the bond market, individuals and institutional investors as part of the community those who can not enter the inter-bank bond market Links to free download http://eng.hi138.commarket, the bond OTC market is open only to individual investors.
The same type, the same bond investors demand to participate in the same market transactions, the transactions between them will no doubt light. 2, the divided capital.
At this stage, China's bond market managed a total of two clearing systems: first by the People's Bank of China (central bank) supervision of the Central Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, as the inter-bank bond market, the background support system, responsible for the inter-bank bond market bond trading and other securities custody and clearing task, followed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission China Securities Depository and Clearing regulated company, responsible for stock exchanges (Shanghai and Shenzhen), including the venue, including all other debt securities custody and clearing tasks. Since there are two de facto custody and settlement system of competition, not between perfect coordination mechanism, so that China's bond market has not managed to form a unified national debt, clearing system so that even if investors are allowed to enter the various market, assuming that the market can trade in all varieties of the same bonds, then the transaction can only be a direct result of: his place in the creation of a separate trading of the bond market managed accounts and capital accounts, there can not be directly cross-market transactions Investment If you want to cross-market arbitrage are to be confined to cross-market distribution of species, and to apply for custody transfer, but the current national debt is not managed unified clearing system is the result: either make the bonds difficult to exchange the bond market and between the inter-bank bond market for custody transfer, or the high cost of custody transfer is not accepted by investors, resulting in arbitrage between the two markets can not go on the market and the division of funds has greatly undermined investor interest and enthusiasm , reducing the liquidity of government bonds, bond futures market for recovery resulted in a greater obstacle.
(B) the debt structure of large defects in the structure of China's current national debt is still defective, the defect structure is mainly reflected in: The state's debt maturity structure and product structure is irrational, difficult to adapt to different needs of investors in different investment objective, resulting in bond market liquidity poor, bond futures market is not conducive to recovery. (C) the bond market is not well known outside world, China's government bond market is not open to foreign investment.
Legal compliance guide foreign capital into the bond market, bond market will help to improve the liquidity and safety, but not to open the bond market is also in a dilemma, mainly in the following two factors:
1, has not been achieved RMB convertibility under capital account and RMB interest rate is not yet and international standards, foreign investment in the domestic bond market easily lead to large-scale arbitrage activity, the principal and interest of foreign export foreign exchange reserves will have a greater impact.
2, China's foreign exchange reserves have very filling, open the bond market is bound to increase foreign exchange savings, and even lead to domestic inflation, and, from the current situation and future projections, the domestic bond market financing capacity is gradually increased, so opening up the necessary type of external debt increased is not strong. China's government bond market is not open to foreign investment, on the contrary, we use the huge foreign exchange reserves to buy the U.S. 'national debt' .2009 On the morning of March 13 meet at the Prime Minister correspondent for the <<Wall Street Journal> > Reporters claim about whether the U.S. concern, Premier Wen Jiabao admitted that really care about the safety of these assets.
Fourth, improve debt management system, to restore the bond futures market policy proposals (a) the establishment of unified secondary bond market, exchange-traded and OTC to achieve co-operation between stock exchanges and bond markets are inter-bank bond market development bonds flow necessary for the market, the two are mutually complementary relationship, rather than competition, so you can participate in the reform of the market system and securities depositories, clearing system, so that investors can freely trade the two markets, government bonds in the two between market freedom to custody transfer, so as to achieve the unity of the two markets.
1, the abolition of market access restrictions in the main body, allowing commercial banks, urban cooperative banks and other institutions involved in stock exchange bond market bond trading. Opening up of individuals and corporate bodies involved in inter-bank bond market, bond trading, bond trading in order to promote the expansion of to improve bond market liquidity.
2, the host system reform bonds, Treasury managed the construction of a unified and efficient clearing system in the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly coordinate, the establishment of a unified and efficient national clearing system managed debt, replace the Central Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation and the China Securities Depository and Clearing company, take custody of all bonds, clearing operations, making the market participants are free to all parties to achieve in the market for custody transfer and liquidation of government bonds, effectively reduce market risk.
(B) improve the debt structure of varieties, species diversity to achieve bonds, bond futures market to meet the recovery needs of species in improving the structure of government bonds, government bonds should further increase the variety, such as treasury bonds, construction bonds, convertible bonds, savings bonds, index -type bonds, and increase long-term, medium-, short-term treasury bonds of the echelon, and the implementation of rolling short-term government bonds issued, the maturity structure of debt and create a reasonable arrangement of structural conditions.
(C) to accelerate the pace of opening up the bond market is the trend of opening up the bond market, but should adopt the principle of gradual, step by step to accelerate the pace of opening in the existing conditions:
1, allowing foreign banks to conduct RMB business with foreign insurance companies, qualified foreign securities companies, QFII (qualified foreign institutional investors) and Sino-foreign cooperative fund management companies to gradually enter the bond market trading in government bonds, and thus promote the bond two level of active trading market, improve bond market liquidity.
2, the accumulation of huge foreign exchange for China, according to Premier Wen Jiabao asked to follow 'safety, liquidity and preservation' principle, we can take measures: those that operate through a variety of foreign exchange reserves into financial capital, issued by the Ministry of Finance bonds, and then used by the People's Bank of China foreign exchange reserves to buy. the development of relevant laws and regulations clearly require us to buy foreign bonds, we must let the other side must also hold our national debt is only through 'mutual support debt' in order to fundamental in other countries to maintain credit, to keep its promise to ensure the safety of our assets.
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